UK could remain net importer of wheat
The UK could remain a net importer of wheat in 2013, as a result of lower plantings following the wet autumn, market analyst ODA has warned.
“We are probably going to be looking at a lower harvest figure than we had this year – UK prices should stay above EU levels for some time in order to facilitate the necessary imports,” said analyst Leo von Kameke, at the ODA annual meeting last week.
Globally, world wheat production for the 2012-13 campaign was down by 48m tonnes, to 648m tonnes, with world stocks down by 39m tonnes to 159m tonnes, said head of cereals analysis Benoit Labouille.
He said the 12% decrease in UK wheat plantings for the 2013-14 campaign – estimated to drop to 1.8m ha – was set against a backdrop of increased world production, up 2.1% to 223.5m ha, compared to 219m ha in 2012-13.
“World stocks are low and we also have a risk in yield – the climate will dominate the market for the next year.”
Leo von Kameke, ODA
With low world stocks of wheat, there would be no room in the market for a repeat of the weather problems faced by growers this year, he warned.
He advised growers to only forward sell a maximum of 25% of wheat at the moment and said global shortages made EU wheat competitive.
“World stocks are low and we also have a risk in yield – the climate will dominate the market for the next year,” he said.
Oilseeds market
Poor weather conditions mean there will be a global shortage of soya beans to March 2013, said ODA chairman Renaud de Kerpoisson.
To satisfy demand, the EU needs to import 3m tonnes of OSR and more of the crop will be used to satisfy European demand for biodiesels, he added.
“We are bullish on meals and oil, and therefore on oilseeds in general in the short run. The rapeseed market is strong and we will see better prices in the next months – I think we could go back to more than €520/t (£418/t) for OSR but this all depends on the strength of soya bean.”
UK becomes net importer of wheat