Forward Planning

The purchase of nitrogen in the modern fertiliser market requires a thorough grasp of the politics of energy supplies, particularly natural gas.

As China becomes a more prolific purchaser, the buying power of the West weakens and America and Europe must become attuned to paying higher prices.

The low prices of the last decade will never return, but for Britain there is at least the optimism that new interconnects gradually coming on stream will at least even prices out a little and bring an end to the high forward pricing witnessed last winter.

And, thank goodness, there are already signs this is starting to happen as forward prices are not as high as originally anticipated.

They are, however, still high enough to put home produced 34.5% ammonium nitrate above £170/t at the height of winter.

Not surprisingly plants are currently running flat out to make the most of “reasonably priced” raw materials and the manufacturers’ expectations are for a price of £161/t on farm now, and £168 in October.

This is lower than anticipated at the start of the season.

Current indications are the volume of early season AN sales has been equally as high as last year, but compressed into a shorter, earlier period.

This is despite very buoyant sales of competitively priced urea. But, after a bumper sales period the market has inevitably stagnated somewhat and merchants now wait to see what acreage has been drilled following harvest.

There is optimism that total demand will return to that of several years ago and there are currently no fears supply will fail to meet it.

Importers are concentrating on supplies of attractively priced urea at present with cheaper AN hard to source. The anti-dumping levy, they claim, is forcing Russia to find more lucrative markets to the detriment of the UK farmer, but as home produced AN rises in price, imports will start to trickle in at some £10/t cheaper.

Sales of grassland grades are now running steadily as farmers seek to recoup growth delayed by drought. Prices for these have hardly changed.

The Irish market is quiet as usual at this time being normally focused on the usage periods.

Within the industry there is more talk and speculation about mergers and acquisitions.

Such activities operate on a cyclical basis, the last significant occurrence in the UK being the closure of the Yara plants at Immingham.

No one is prepared to commit at present but is does seem that significant readjustment is imminent within the European industry.

Great Britain

Ireland

*†Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides.  Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Known as 24.2½.10 blend in the Republic of Ireland
**Known as 27.2½.5 in ROI

Note All illustrated prices are based upon 24 tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

Source: Bridgewater