Russian wheat exports continue apace, with Egypt buying another 240,000t at about a $20/t (£12/t) discount to French wheat.
“Recent hiking prices in Russia could lead to export tariffs, should business remain strong,” said a report by Agritel.
Russia would also be in the maize export market this year, with 5.8-6m tonnes of corn likely to be harvested, against consumption of about 3.5m tonnes.
“Meanwhile, the Minister of Agriculture Irina Skrinnik confirmed that grain production this year will reach the previously forecast level of 85-90m tonnes.”
However, Ukrainian forecasts of a 50m tonne crop had been overestimated, said the report.
“Despite good corn harvest potential, output will not be more than 46-47m tonnes.”
European exports were lagging well behind last year, at 1.8m tonnes of wheat compared to 2.7m tonnes in 2010.
Total barley exports were pegged at 713,000t against 814,000t last year.
But Brussels had just granted export certificates for 326,000t of wheat and 45,000t of barley, it added.
In Germany, rapeseed output could drop below 4m tonnes due to adverse weather conditions.
“Continued rain across France and Germany is resulting in a greater percentage of wheat being downgraded to feed quality,” said David Sheppard, managing director at Gleadell Agriculture.
“This is contrary to the Ukraine, where the proportion of milling wheat in this year’s crop has been increased to 70%, from last month’s estimate of 60%.
“But global economic woes are still hovering in the background, so any negative news will cause profit-taking across the commodity/equity markets.”