Global wheat production is likely to be 24m tonnes higher than last year, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest report, released today (11 August).
It increased its forecast to 672m tonnes – 9.7m tonnes higher than last month’s estimate, with larger than expected crops in the Former Soviet Union, India, China and the EU.
“Russian production is raised 3m tonnes on harvest reports for winter wheat and continued favorable weather in most of the country’s spring wheat areas,” said the report.
“Ukraine production is increased 3m tonnes on higher-than-expected yields; however, heavy rains during harvest have reduced this year’s crop quality.”
EU production was 1.4m tonnes higher than expected, due to larger crops in France, Romania, and Bulgaria.
“Harvest results from France indicate yields were hurt less by prolonged spring dryness than early reports had suggested.”
Conversely, the USDA slashed global coarse grain production by 14m tonnes, driven by smaller corn and sorghum crops in America.
“The national average corn yield is forecast at 153 bushels per acre, down 5.7 bushels from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.”
Global oilseed production was projected at 451m tonnes, down 4.1m tonnes from last month, mostly due to a reduction in the US soybean crop.
“The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bushels per acre is 2 bushels below last month’s trend yield projection and 2.1 bushels below last year’s yield.”