A quick glance at this week's farm income figures from DEFRA, and it seems that all is well with British livestock farming.
Total beef output grew by 27% in 2008 to almost £2.1bn as tighter supplies led to better prices. Costs rose too, but not so fast, generating increased profits.
British beef production also appears to have been relatively untouched by the recession. While there has been some down-trading to lower value cuts, this has been more than offset by the currency effects.
As a result, prices have held up well, with R4L carcasses hovering between 290p/kg and 300p/kg for most of January.
But things could turn quite quickly.
First, world demand is falling as the recession bites in many key importing regions, putting downward pressure on prices. Analysis by international consultants Gira suggests EU beef prices will fall about 8% this year.
Second, while this market weakening has already got under way in some parts of the world, UK prices have been protected by the weak £. Trying to guess which way it will go from here is risky, but I met some foreign exchange traders this morning who were confident that sterling would now recover.
Their view was that bad economic data was slower to emerge in countries like France and Germany and, as figures on growth and employment come out, the euro will take a hit. There is already some evidence of this, with sterling back up to €1.12 today compared with €1.02 at the start of the year.
Thirdly, beef producers have not really enjoyed the benefits of cheaper animal feed that they might have hoped for following the bumper harvest in 2008. Imported feedstuffs like soya and maize gluten have actually shot up in recent weeks, and even cereal prices are doing better.
As ever, there are two sides to the story, (spot the economist!), but on balance the beef sector is far better placed to deal with these challenges than it was a couple of years ago.
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