This week's swine flu "crisis" is a mixed blessing for British pig producers.
Of course there is enormous frustration that the term "swine flu" is being used at all, especially when the virus has never been found in pigs and is very much a human condition.
The NFU has suggested "Mexican flu" would be a more appropriate term - which might help the public image of pigs, but wouldn't do much for Mexicans.
But whatever its name - and let's face it, swine flu is going to stick - the concern for farmers is what effect it will have on the market.
Already there are some onerous signs. Several countries have imposed import bans on Mexican and North American pigmeat, interrupting trade flows and creating a perception that there is somehow a link between eating pork and catching the flu.
News that Egypt is to slaughter 300,000 pigs, ostensibly to "quell any panic", can only exacerbate this fear.
On the back of this, it is little surprise that US hog futures markets have slumped by 10% this week, and news that Italian wholesale pork prices are down 25% brings the whole thing closer to home.
So what's the good news?.....
Well, for a start, British consumption appears to have been unaffected. This is partly down to the fact that consumers in this country have seen it all before with avian flu, foot-and-mouth, BSE, salmonella etc and are fairly immune to media hype.
Past experience also tells us that any market reaction tends to be short-lived. Even with H5N1 avian flu, which is a far nastier virus than this H1N1 human strain, the market only stuttered but did not fall.
Another plus is that, if there has been a reaction at all, then it has been that consumers are actively looking out for British product, in particular farm assured, which gives them the guarantee that the meat has come from high health herds.
And then there is the possibility that, with countries like Russia, China and Indonesia closing their doors to North American product, it could lead to fresh market opportunities for European and UK pigmeat.
Of course much will also depend on how the flu outbreak develops in the human population and whether it becomes a pandemic. Clearly there is no room for complacency.
But so far the signs look reasonably good for British pig producers, many of whom are returning to profitability for the first time in several years.
* For more postings on Phil Clarke's Business Blog, click here And why not leave a comment below?
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