Latest data from DEFRA on the size of this year's grain harvest contain few surprises.
The whole farming industry has known for months that the UK has produced less wheat and more barley. The only question has been exactly how much less and how much more?
With official planting and yield estimates now to hand, it is little surprise to discover that UK wheat production is down by 18% at 14.2m tonnes, while barley is up 10% at 6.7m tonnes. Tweak the figures for oats, and the official estimate points to a 10% lower overall grain crop of 21.8m tonnes.
This revelation has hardly set the grain trade alight. Indeed, London futures prices have moved by less than £1/t across all positions.
But that's not to suggest that the scene is now fixed for the rest of the season...
For a start, these are just provisional figures. Final figures will not be issued until next January, once more survey results have been collected and better data has been provided by the devolved governments.
But it is the demand side of the equation that is even more subject to change. The HGCA has pencilled in wheat demand of 14.669m tonnes for 2009/10, but this could change significantly.
For a start, the new Ensus ethanol plant in Teesside is due to come on stream by the end of the year and this will take an as yet undetermined quantity of wheat off the market.
Offsetting this is the loss of the Syral starch plant at Icklingham in Suffolk, which closed recently and which was a significant user of local wheat in East Anglia.
The greatest uncertainty, however, is the relative competitiveness of wheat and barley. Should barley start to move into intervention stores at any point this season, then that will open the door for more wheat to go as animal feed.
But, whatever the developments on the supply or demand side of the UK balance sheet, the fact remains that we are operating in an EU and global market - and that market is thoroughly well supplied with grain.
With an estimated 2.3m tonnes of wheat to export, plus or minus a bit, the UK is never going to escape the need to be competitive on the international market.
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