Economics is undoubtedly a complicated subject.
It's been a long time since I studied it in any formal sense, but I can just about remember the theories of opportunity costs and marginal gains, even if the detailed econometric formulae I could once rattle off have long gone.
But as a former student of economics, I was somewhat dismayed by a comment from Barclays Bank agricultural specialist Martin Redfearn at today's (Tuesday's) HGCA outlook conference in London.
According to Mr Redfearn, "if you could teach a parrot to say the words 'supply' and 'demand' you could give it a mortar board and call it a professor of economics".
The remark seemed somewhat dismissive of all the years I spent studying the subject, though it has to be said, he does have a point....
Numerous papers were presented at the HGCA conference on a wide variety of subjects. But in each case, when push came to shove, just about every market analysis came down to just two things - supply and demand.
Take wheat, for example. A detailed presentation by HGCA senior analyst Jack Watts concluded that, while demand was still fairly strong, it was going to be exceeded by supply this year, so expect stocks to grow and prices to remain under pressure.
Mr Redfearn's own presentation then went into the ins and outs of bank lending to agriculture in the face of recession. His main point, however, was that, as the supply of money had tightened as a result of the credit crunch, so the cost of borrowing had climbed. But now the supply of money was better, so the cost was falling.
And then there was the fertiliser market, analysed in some detail by Marina Simonova of British Sulphur Consultants. Many factors were at play, she said, but the main ones were supply and demand. The market had clearly responded to the price spike in 2008 with global demand falling through the floor. Suppliers had responded with lower prices this season, though the signs were that, with gas prices rising and demand improving, fertiliser prices would trend higher in 2010.
As ever, there was a huge amount of market information to take in at the HGCA conference. But, apart from the "parrot/professor" observation, the one other comment that resonated with my A level economics came from HGCA chairman Jonathan Tipples, who said "give farmers the right price and they will respond".
That was clearly demonstrated in 2007, when the global price spike led directly to the record grain harvest of 2008, which led in turn to the subsequent price collapse. Given the right price, there is little doubt that farmers can respond to meet the challenges of feeding the world population.
What is needed as much as prices that deliver a profit, however, is a market that also delivers some price stability. Unfortunately, the theory of supply and demand suggests that that may be wishful thinking.
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