On first inspection, DEFRA's latest estimate of 2009 UK farm incomes is enough to cheer the heart.
In a year in which many people in the British workforce have had to endure pay freezes, and in some cases pay cuts, those in the farming industry have apparently seen average incomes climb by 25%.
In aggregate terms, the UK Total Income From Farming is being estimated by DEFRA at about £4.2bn. That comes on top of last year's 36% increase.
And in terms of income per person employed in agriculture, the figure is put at about £23,000 - not exactly Premiership footballers' territory, but comfortably above the minimum wage.
But don't get carried away just yet. These figures are merely first estimates and DEFRA's track record of getting it right first time leaves a lot to be desired!
This time 12 months ago DEFRA was suggesting that Total Income From Farming had climbed by 8% in real terms, as higher cereal prices in the first half of the year outweighed the effects of rising input costs...
Then in February, the Whitehall number crunchers came out with a new set of data, putting TIFF up 36% at £3.46bn, or £18,185 per full-time worker - a correction of over 400% in the space of two months!
Certainly the first estimate of TIFF for 2009 has raised a few eyebrows amongst respected industry analysts. Both the NFU and farm business consultants Andersons said they were expecting a small decrease, not a 25% increase.
Despite the healthy boost to single farm payments thanks to currency, many commodity markets have taken a hammering this year as global markets have slumped. This has been especially hard-felt in the dairy and arable sectors, which between them account for about 40% of agriculture's £19bn output.
Claims that inputs are significantly cheaper this year also seem over-stated. Plenty of fertiliser was bought early in the year at very firm prices, while imported animal feed has stayed obstinately expensive. And red diesel prices have been edging up on a monthly basis since the summer.
Hopefully by the time DEFRA publishes its revised TIFF figures early next year, it will still be pointing to an overall increase in farm incomes. But I wouldn't count on it being anywhere near the 25% upturn that is currently being touted.
* For more blog postings click here. And why not sign up for regular email alerts?
| Tweet |
|
Leave a comment
Want a user icon? Get a Gravatar!