The latest TIFF (Total Income From Farming) figures from DEFRA published this week come as quite a surprise.
OK, everyone was expecting that these new figures would differ significantly from the "first estimates" issued by the department's statistical bods last November.
Then the data seemed to suggest that farm incomes had actually increased by 25% during 2009 - which was plainly total nonsense. At the time on this blog I said that DEFRA's track record of getting it right first time left a lot to be desired.
So the fact that this week's figures suggest UK farm incomes actually fell by 6% in 2009 was not unexpected.
What was a complete surprise, however, was that this turnaround had not come about because of any major revision to the 2009 TIFF figure - which has been recalculated at £4.1bn instead of £4.3bn....
No, the switch from a 25% income gain to a 6% income loss has come about because DEFRA has revised - massively - the TIFF figure attributed to 2008. Thus, instead of earning £3.5bn in 2008, DEFRA is now saying that UK farming made £4.4bn that year - a difference of over £900m!
To be fair to DEFRA, it does at least try to explain why it got it so wrong. "Revisions occur because of the use of later information, changes in the scope and nature of the available data and improvements in statistical methods," it says
In particular, it notes that its previous data for 2008 - issued this time last year - overestimated farmers' input costs to the tune of about £700m. "Complete data for the year has now replaced an element of forecasting."
That's as maybe. But what confidence can we have that the current set of data is any more reliable?
Some analysts believe that the new 2009 TIFF figure of £4.1bn - which equates to about £21,000 per person employed in farming - is still an over-estimate.
I wouldn't like to say either way.
* For more blog postings click here
| Tweet |
|
Leave a comment
Want a user icon? Get a Gravatar!