Yesterday (Thursday) I had the pleasure of attending one of the Andersons spring seminars at Salisbury racecourse on Opportunities in a Changing Agriculture.
Surprisingly it was the first of these annual events I'd been to - and sadly one of the last that well-known agricultural consultant and analyst Francis Mordaunt would be giving before his impending retirement.
Explaining complicated issues in simple and engaging terms is a gift, and one that Francis has in abundance.
In just 30 minutes he gave a crash course on the current state of British agriculture, encompassing most of the external factors affecting it, giving an assessment of the health of the industry and providing some useful pointers as to where we might be heading.
The key points were as follows:
* UK farming has weathered the recession better than most sectors. Total Income From Farming (TIFF) in 2008 and 2009 came to over £4bn each year - well up on the £2-3bn seen in the previous eight years.
* At this level, TIFF was finally in excess of direct payments, showing that farming is making a small profit even without subsidy...
* The projections for the next two years are for similar levels of TIFF, even assuming a strengthening of sterling to 85p against the € compared with the current 91p.
* But arable farming and dairying have a far bigger impact on TIFF in England than the livestock sector and, if the current malaise in cereal prices continues, then UK farming may struggle more in 2010.
* Agriculture still has a strong balance sheet. Since reaching record levels last autumn, borrowing has come down, reflecting in part the early arrival of the 2009 SFP. At £11bn agriculture is not a sector that is heavily borrowed and, with interest rates low, the cost is affordable.
* As the value of land has continued to rise, (from £83bn in 1997 to £167bn ten years later), the "net worth to borrowing" ratio stands at about 16:1 - the strongest of almost any industry.
* The key driving force, of course, is the exchange rate and the weak pound against the euro has been very positive. The downside is the weak pound against the dollar, which had pushed up the cost of things which are traded in dollars, such as fuel and fertiliser.
* On the policy side, there are some encouraging signs that DEFRA has started to soften its stance on getting rid of the single farm payment, with ministers accepting that it is here to stay until 2020 at least.
* But there will be pressure on the single farm payment post-2012 CAP reform, as the budget is cut.
* And the fact that the UK is 60% self sufficient in food, and imports the bulk of the remaining 40% from other EU member states, means that the government is unlikely to push strongly for a "food production" strategy.
Of course, there was much more to the presentation than that, with forecasts given for each of the main farming sectors and an overview of the opportunities that lie ahead - all delivered in the same clear and objective style.
It was certainly the most useful and informative 30 minutes I've had in a long time. Francis will be sadly missed by the whole industry when he retires to Scotland at the end of the month.
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