David's Digest

On Wednesday I shall be chairing the Sentry Conference at Chilford Hall, just south of Cambridge. I am pleased to report its a sell-out and nearly 400 people will be there to listen to a distiguished line-up of speakers on the theme of "Matching the Food, Energy and Environmental Challenge". So, what I am about to say may, on the face of it be considered unimportant to me. My concern, however, is for the future.

Because on the same day, Feb 6th, there's to be an event on beet growing at the East of England Showground organised by British Sugar and another on water quality and NVZ's at Newmarket racecourse. All three events are within a few miles of one another and are potentially of considerable interest to East Anglian farmers. Some of the delegates to each of them might have preferred to be able to visit at least one of the others.

My point is that there is surely a need for a national directory of planned events of interest to farmers so that anyone planning a programme can refer to it and choose a date that is free. It would clearly have to be voluntary in that anyone prepared to take the risk of doubling up could do so. But it would help avoid frustration among punters and poor attendances by farmers.

Maybe such an agency already exists. It certainly should in these days of electronic communications. If so I hope someone will respond to this and tell me. If not someone might think it appropriate to start one. Perhaps even Farmers Weekly! I look forward to developments.

Its been a hectic week - hence my absence from these pages. As previously mentioned I chaired the Sentry Conference at Chilford Hall, near Cambridge, on Wednesday. Actually, I arrange it as well so I have quite a lot of effort invested in the event that goes on virtually year round.

All seemed to be going well at the beginning of the week. All bases were covered. No problems.

Then, on Tuesday morning when I fired up my laptop, I found an email from my keynote speaker, Prof Bob Thompson of the University of Illinois, USA. Sorry David, he said, but I'm snowed in. No aircraft are flying and I will not be able to be at your conference.

I was just beginning to think I might have to make a speech myself to fill the gap, when another email from Bob came through. I have attached my powerpoint slides, he said, maybe I could get up at 4.00am (10.00am UK time) and talk about them by a telephone link if your audio visual guys can connect me to the conference loudspeakers.

Glancing through the jobs section of the Sunday Times today I noticed one for Chief Veterinary Officer at DEFRA; salary c£135k.

Now that Debbie Reynolds has returned to making musical comedy films (I assume) after four years in the job during which time she had to deal with a series of disease disasters, our political masters have clearly judged the time right to replace her. I had wondered if the decision had been made to appoint Debbie's deputy who has been acting Chief Vet for some time. But this ad suggests not.

The wording of the job description is rather interesting. The successful applicant will, for instance, "have a key voice in changing the relationship between Government and animal keepers so as to engender greater responsibility for animal health and welfare standards across the country". In other words he or she will be charged with removing full compensation for animals compulsorily slaughtered leaving the victims to pick up at least part of the bill.

Significantly, the ad says nothing about strengthening import controls to keep notifyable diseases out of Britain. All it says is "you will contribute to the development of national and international policies...on animal health and welfare matters".

My friend, Charles Clover, he of the Daily Telegraph, reported last weekend how DEFRA Secretary of State, Hilary Benn, is busy promoting public access for all, while denying it to a length of foreshore in front of his ancestral home. Moreover, the Ramblers claim there are signs outside the imposing house on the Blackwater estuary in Essex saying "no public footpath", private garden, and "please do not trespass".

Its not the first time I've heard the story. I remember hearing many years ago when Hilary's father, Tony, or Anthony as he was called then, that he insisted on maintaining his privacy along that piece of beach. As I remember it, when Hilary's grandfather, William Wedgewood Benn, bought the property in the mid 1930's, it came with rights to the shore and out to sea "as far as a man could throw a spear". Clearly, Tony, the high profile, equality loving left winger, who renounced his rights to inherit his fathers peerage (he should have been called Viscount Stansgate) does not believe totally in equal rights for all.

Now, because of his DEFRA job it falls to Hilary to sort it out. There can be little doubt that he will be forced to comply with the legislation his own department is writing and before long the Ramblers will be able to ramble past Stansgate Abbey just as they will the rest of the British coastline. But isn't it interesting that the high principled Wedgewood Benn's have felt justified in keeping their ancient rights for seventy years while the privacy of the rest of us has been constantly eroded.

As George Orwell said in Animal Farm "Some pigs are more equal than others".

My old friend Delia Smith (I used to do TV programmes with her yonks ago) has seen off her upstart rivals in the world of chefs and sold millions of copies of her new book "How to cheat at cooking" before it arrived on the bookshop shelves. Not only that but she has debunked organic as being too expensive for most and by saying "she doesn't do politics". She even concedes that intensively reared chickens have their place on the tables of working class people.

Good on yer Delia. Its the kind of common sense we have come to expect from you.

And isn't it gratifying that this down to earth woman of mature years will be gracing our TV screens with sensible ideas for family meals without flashing her eyes or her boobs, like NIgella Lawson; speaking in the Queens English, unlike Gordon Ramsey; and without trying to change the world like Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall and Jamie Oliver. And she'll be more popular than all of them, you see if she isn't.

And then she'll be able to afford to buy another striker or too for Norwich City.

I was once called a “boring old fart” by a lady who disagreed with something I’d said. Fortunately, she reviewed her judgement later when it became clear I was right (I would say that wouldn’t I?) and we’ve been good friends since. But I’m in danger of attracting similar comments as I repeat unpopular opinions.

It’s mainly the warning that while arable farming seems set for at least one good year and maybe two, there’s a real chance that profits could decline sharply after that. My reason for returning to the subject is that I recently sat in on a discussion which attempted to define what might happen to costs over the next few years. I’ve also been reading a special edition of HSBC’s Taking the Pulse publication that seems to confirm my thoughts.

The discussion on costs included individuals who buy inputs for a large number of farms and several thousand acres. They research the market on a daily basis and are in close touch with likely trends.

The consensus was that whereas 35% N fertiliser had been bought for use this year at around £145/t, by 2010 it could well cost £245/t. Crop protection products (for combinable crops), which would this year cost about £175/ha would probably be at least £200/ha in two years time.

Wages would certainly increase by the equivalent of or more than inflation and even with min till cultivations being adopted more widely it was likely the cost of labour would rise by up to £15/ha during the two years. Machinery and fuel were more difficult to assess but the odds are they will go up by at least a similar percentage as labour and possibly a great deal more.

And then there’s rent, or rental equivalent if it refers to contract farming. Land agents, on behalf of landowners (and themselves, of course) have been scattering demands for rent reviews around like confetti in eager anticipation of substantial rises on the back of higher commodity prices. But like some farmers they have omitted to include those higher costs in their calculations.

According to the pundits in the group I was with, even if the grain market stays as strong as it is now, yields will need to increase by around 15% to maintain viable margins. Furthermore, this will have to be achieved with fewer inputs of ferts and sprays because they will be too expensive. The next target, they said, should be profitability without subsidies when Single Farm Payments disappear in 2012 – according to current information.

And as the HSBC economist said, there’s one other joker in the pack. During recent stock market volatility the managers of hedge funds have been desperate to find homes for the pension and other cash that comes to them for investment every day. They’ve put some of it into commodities and caused some of the unprecedented daily lurches in futures prices. If stock markets regain stability this ephemeral investment might stop and prices could fall.

David Richardson - column from 22 Feb issue of Farmers Weekly

Yesterday the office phone rang at about 12.30pm and on the other end was this bright young lady. At least she sounded bright. "We owe you a load of Urea to complete your order" she said. "Would it be OK if we delivered it today?" I replied that it would if the lorry could be here before 4.30pm because after that I had other things to attend to. "That will not be a problem, sir" she said and hung up.

Four thirty came and went. Then five thirty and still no sign of the lorry. Then the phone rang again. "I'm about ten miles from you" said the lorry driver, "how do I find the farm?"

Hang on, I said. I told your girl you would have to be here an hour ago if you wanted to be unloaded this afternoon. You're too late. Come at seven tomorrow morning and I will unload you. To which the driver said he knew nothing about the timing but agreed to arrive in the farmyard early today.

He clearly then rang his transport manager, because a few minutes later the phone rang again. "I'm sorry sir", said the transport manager, "I knew nothing of the arrangement to be with you by 4.30. But is there any way you could unload the lorry because I have a full day planned for it tomorrow and I shall lose a lot of money if it isn't emptied tonight?"

I complained about them last autumn and now I'm being driven barmy by them this spring. Keeping pesky pigeons off oil seed rape is dominating my life at present. And the size of the flocks is enormous. You set off bangers and gas guns and put up scarers but all that happens is that the birds flutter over to the neighbours rape fields until your back is turned and when his banger bangs they flutter back again.

With rape seed worth £340/t next autumn you can't afford to give up. But chasing around the district with a gun and letting off cartridges to frighten them is a soul destroying business. And inviting local shooters to come and knock a few of them over for fun is counter productive. All they do with their decoys is attract more members of the blue feathered fraternity. Nor can you rely on the shooters to be there in the early mornings when the pigeons first drop into the crops. Having relied on a couple of locals and seen how ineffective they have been I think we'll ban them in future.

The trouble is we've had such mild winters for the last few years and there is so much food around for them to eat that many more have survived than previously. And the flocks bothering me now will shortly start to incubate more clutches of eggs. So what can be done?