Crucial statistics estimated by Defra and on the basis of which the government decides what's to happen to agriculture, it has now been admitted, were more than 30% out when they were issued a couple of months ago.
As Phil Clarke has revealed in his blog of yesterday "How reliable are farm income figures?" actual income from farming during 2009 has now been calculated to be a fall of 6% from the previous year. Last autumn Defra said Total Income from Farming (TIFF) had risen during 2009 by 25%. Now they say their starting point was wrong; that they had underestimated TIFF for 2008 and that was the basis for their discrepancy.
Both Phil (in a blog) and I (in a column in FW) questioned the accuracy of the Defra figures when they were first published. Without having access to the working documents we sensed that the estimates just didn't feel right. But Defra went ahead and published anyway. Now, it seems we were right and Defra was wrong.
So, does no-one at Defra have enough understanding of our industry to have similar instincts? And if they don't, shouldn't they check them out with someone who does? Come to that why can't they get them right to start with?
Why does it matter? Because there will be many in government and out there among consumers who will remember the first figure but may not even see the correction; because government policies may well be based on false information; because this is yet another example of an incompetent administration that should be sent to the knackers yard.
Why should we believe anything Defra tells us?
Comments (1)
Indian Farming, Domestic Wheat £160 per ton
Farmers pay no tax, no Vat, get given fertiliser, 50% goverment subsidy on farm machinery and soft loans to buy tractors that maybe don't have to be repaid?What do we get? What incentives to be more competitive ? or do we really need to produce more so long as we feed our own nation?.If we are to lose the EC subsidy the price will have to increase does the goverment know this or are they just burying it's head in the sand?If India is self suffient on Wheat?. They effectively subsidise farming even though their Wheat price is 50% dearer than the world Price.What is our goverment doing for us? See my Blogg on The artical about British industry in the Daily Mail.
Posted by James Robinson | April 27, 2010 1:53 PM
Posted on April 27, 2010 13:53