David's Digest

The papers have been full of speculation, following the sharp rise in the prices of cereals, that arable farmers will be rolling in cash in a few weeks time. Even accountants have joined in warning of horrendous tax implications as a result of the higher values and urging us to restructure our businesses to minimise what we have to pay to the government.

I don't doubt a few fortunate individuals will have made a killing - if they happened to be awake and off the combine during the hour or so that prices hit the top of the market. And yes, even if most of us missed the peak we probably managed to sell a proportion of our crop at something below the best price.

But any farmer who'se been paying attention to the pundits from HGCA and elsewhere over recent months will have sold a fair chunk of his crop forward at prices far lower than the headline grabbers of last week. They may, therefore, have raised their average a bit during the excitement but they are unlikely to have secured the bonanza suggested by the media.

Furthermore, with only 15% of UK wheat harvested so far and virtually none north of the Wash and with regular heavy showers disrupting combining its a little early to start counting the cash. If this weather continues - and the rain is beating against the office window as I write - we could be looking at a salvage operation (again) before long and the grain won't even make feed spec.

It rained on St Swithins and the old Saint is not often far out with his forecast of 40 days of catchy weather following July 15th. And we've only had 30 of those days so far.