EU 2015 cereal crop size will be down 6.9%, says forecast

EU cereal production is forecast to fall by almost 7% this year as a result of poor weather and CAP reform.

This forecast, by farmer and co-op lobby group Copa-Cogeca, puts cereal production across all 28 member states at just over 298m tonnes, a drop of 6.9% on the 2014 crop.

The biggest drop comes in the size of the maize crop which is set to fall 24% to 55.7m tonnes, despite the area sown being down by just 6.1%.

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Wheat is set to come in at 153.9m tonnes, just 1m tonnes below 2015’s record crop on a slightly lower area but with a higher average yield of 5.85t/ha.

The rye, triticale and sorghum crops are all forecast in size by between 11% and 12%.

Chairman of Copa-Cogeca’s cereals working party, Max Schulman, said this year’s harvest was still good, bearing in mind the record levels of last year, but warned of serious cashflow problems as a result of rock-bottom prices which did not cover cost of production.

The EU needed to step up exports and find new market outlets, he said.

“We welcome EU Commission plans to boost EU promotion programmes.

“Agri-co-operatives are also helping farmers to better manage their cashflow since the last season and we welcome the fact that the EU Commission has proposed paying farmers direct payments in advance without on-the-spot controls.

“This move will help improve farmers’ cashflow.

“The new rules on financial markets [Mifid II] should also take into account the agriculture sector with tools to protect farmers against market risks,” he said.

The 2015 rapeseed harvest for the EU’s 28 members will be down by 11.2%, mainly as a result of the neonicotinoid seed treatment ban and poor weather.

Mr Schulman called for a socio-economic impact assessment of this to be carried out by the European Commission.

The CAP reform three-crop rule was the main reason for a 35% increase in the size of protein crops.