Another post from Ian Ashbridge on the concept of "peak oil".
Academics, commentators and campaigners are divided over the concept of "peak oil" - the year at which fossil fuels begin to decline rapidly and we are forced to develop new ways of producing energy. Depending on whose figures you believe, oil extraction may have already peaked - it is variously pegged to be between 2005 and 2030.
But one enterprising academic has launched an innovative new research project into exactly how people might cope without fossil fuels.
The Utopia experiment, based near the Cromarty Firth in the Scottish Highlands, seeks to define what skills human beings will need to survive, and how communities might cope in such a post-apocalyptic world. Each month represents a year in "post-peak oil" time, and some resources will be gradually stripped away as the project's timeline progresses.
Utopia is much more than an eco-commune. It's a serious bit of academic work. It's led by Dr Dylan Evans, who was, until recently, senior lecturer at the University of the West of England, Bristol, a post he resigned in order to lead the Utopia experiment. He is also understood to have put a significant amount of his own capital into the project's funds. Dr Evans - whose background is some way from organic agriculture - he has conducted research in evolutionary psychology, robotics, philosophy of science and philosophy of medicine - hopes the project will stimulate debate about the need for society to adopt a more sustainable way of living.
It seems to me that this project imagines a scenario where oil availability plummets after a certain point in time. I'm relatively comfortable with the concept of peak oil - there can only be so much of the stuff that we can reasonably get at - but I find it harder to accept a sudden apocalyptic situation. Oil will become more scarce, but there are still very significant quantities to extract and many, many oilfields that have been overlooked due to easier alternatives elsewhere. I would suggest that it might be harder than we think to spot "peak-oil", and that we will continue to use a slowly diminishing supply for several decades - perhaps even much longer.
Nevertheless, Dr Evans' Utopia Experiment deserves respect for several reasons. Firstly, it's a serious academic approaching a very real set of problems for the benefit of everyone. Secondly, it's a controlled piece of research, not a hippy commune counting berries (although there was more than a hint of a caftan about The Times' feature on the project) and lastly, it helps to identify not only that food production and agriculture shouldn't be taken for granted, but practical things that each of us can do to adopt a more sustainable lifestyle.