FROM where I stand…. It is all too apparent that biofuel interest is booming, but its future is set to be far from smooth and it is distinctly likely that UK farmers could miss out on much of the action.
In the words of the BBC's former rural affairs correspondent, Tom Heap: "British biofuel is proving to be a monstrous challenge to get off the ground, not only as an industry, but as something that is actually being used on the roads."
Environmentalists and the media are eager to test claims on energy saving and greenhouse gas production. "It's on a knife-edge. Biofuels have to be climate neutral not just as a fuel, but also as the infrastructure involved. There is nothing journalists like better than false claims."
Messages to the public need to be robust. "If you are driving your biofuel car at the expense of someone else's hunger there isn't going to be much of a feelgood factor."
It is something the NFU is seeking to address. But pricing messages also need addressing. Claims that using grain for biofuel pushes prices up elsewhere are wrong, insisted Graham Meeks, head of fuels and heat at the Renewable Energy Association.
"Livestock grain users, brewers - and almost anyone using grain - are turning to biofuels as a scapegoat for high prices, whereas global trade issues are the cause."
The campaign waged by the WWF and others, with the slogan "tell the government to choose the right biofuel or the orang-utan gets it" had a particular impact, he said.
But given the volatility of oil and grain commodity prices he believed risks were not properly spread across the value chain, with processors taking too much risk. "A more equitable split across the chain is needed or developers will not invest," he said.
That may well be true. But unless UK-grown feedstocks can be shown to be competitive environmentally farmers may never get the chance to grow them - for any price.
Recently announced changes to the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation are a distinct threat, demanding a 40% greenhouse gas saving. That is a big ask for UK-grown feedstocks.
Sugar beet currently delivers a 40% saving, but wheat is less than 10%. Biodiesel achieves more than 80% when made from used cooking oil, but only just over 10% when made from rapeseed. Those figures compare poorly with a 75% saving from Argentinian soya or 40% from tropical palm.
That carbon equation is pushing people towards feedstocks from the tropics. The big question is around the sustainability of such imports, in the context of potential impacts on habitats in particular. It is an area where policy has simply not yet been squared. It is time for UK industry to argue its case.