After the long run home late last night I've spent a few minutes uploading more photos to the Stirling sales gallery, so go ahead and take a look and see if you can spot yourself or your purchase in any of the pictures.....
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About this Entry
This page contains a single entry by Jonathan Long published on February 4, 2010 1:00 PM.
Saler females top at 3300gns was the previous entry in this blog.
Intriging Taking Stock postbag is the next entry in this blog.
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We were very disapointed that you were unable to put a photo of the res Intermedeat Angus Champion on your web site and also in the Farmers Weekly, as it was one of the Championship Bulls, Not just for our own satisfaction of winning, but also for the Purchaser of the Bull who was hoping to see a photo of His Purchase, as you seem to have photo's of far lesser bulls, having been buying you'r mag for the last 50 years I'm very disapointed,
David Lucas
David
Was your bulls EBV lower than the other six in the shake up?
It would seem that the prize winners are decided upon from EBV in the catalogues, that may not be such a bad thing if the data was varified.How scary is it that EBV are made up from unvarified age/weight data supplied by breeders.
The EBV is in effect a quality assurance system, the key word being assurance, there is no assurance that the data supplied is correct.
Hi David, many thanks for your comments, a photo of your bull is on the site in the championship results post - http://www.fwi.co.uk/blogs/livestock-and-sales-blog/2010/02/massie-family-take-aberdeen-an.html - he wasn't included in FW as his price meant he fell outside the coverage space.
Limster, I'm afraid I'm now becoming weary of your constant rants about the EBV system. If you believe there are people falsifying the system then name some names and speak to the relevant authorities. If you have proof then pass it to those who can do something about it - the breed society councils. Your suggestion that the data isn't verified is in fact ridiculous as all sale bulls are weighed at the sale and any with wieghts out of sync with their previous records are immediately investigated. This is secondary to weights taken when eye muscle and fat depth are scanned on-farm by an independent contractor, adding another check to the system.
Jonathan
I am sorry to hear that you are weary, I did not know that you do not want posts that you do not agree with, I dont believe that I am ranting, everthing I have written is in my honest opinion. you may not have noticed but you are the only one who has disagreed with my view, so far?
Firstly of course the weights at the sale inspection will always be higher than the last EBV entered weight, if it was not the owner would not show up with the bull, if the dob is wrong the weight will always be on a rising plane. No varifiable proof there then.
Secondly very few bulls are scanned on farm by an independent contractor, for example in the Perth catalogue there is no mention of any, for carlisle there are two. You may not be aware that it is the breeder/owner that invites a bull to be scanned and not randomly selected by Signet. Again no variviable proof.
Your own blog on the Simmie catalogue is a perfect example of the effect of EBV you have entirely based your opinion on unverified EBV data, I would have thought that as a Journalist you would be determined to ensure that your reporting was based on facts?
Increasingly breeders cannot use a bull that does not have a high EBV, that is why it is vital that data is varified,
As in any quality system the objective should be to varify right doing and not to retrospectively prove wrong doing. If the EBV system was run properly there would be no doubting its value to us all.
I am really disapointed that you believe that my opinion is "ridiculous" i If you want me to stop making comments just say so and I will leave you to it.
Jonathan,
I'm afraid that I agree with most of what limster is saying. Yes, bulls are weighed at the sale,but are their previous records really investigated? I can only speak from the point of view of lims, but I for one haven't heard of anyone actually being investigated and any punishment being given,in recent years. Surely the only way to actually verify the information is to carry out an unannounced checks on each breeder. The data is only as honest as the person submitting it.
Limster, I am more than willing to accept comment from any point of view, it is the lively discusssion which makes Taking Stock such a success. To address your latest comments, firstly you are right, of course the sale weight will be higher, it is the differential between the weights which is checked - if the DLWG is above about 1.8kg/day then questions are asked.
Secondly, as to scanning, in fact a large proportion of bulls are scanned and in at least two breeds failure to scan results in no end EBVs being produced for an animal. In the Lims, I'm reliably informed that 64% of recorded bulls in Stirling were scanned at 400 days and weighed at the same time, giving independent verification of the weights. On top of that, many breeds operate a 48hr inspection of calf birth notifications - they may not follow throught with it that often, but the threat of it should be enough. With regard to my Simmie preview this wasn't based entirely on EBVs, but a combination of the data and my own knowledge of the breed - you'll note that my top pick bull is Omorga Wagner, a son of Dripsey Super King (Raceview King son, sire of breed record holderOmorga Samson) and out of Omorga Maud (daughter of Cleenagh Daffodil, dam of Samson).
Limster, what you on about?
Sounds a bit like you cant stand the heat! What bulls have you sold to make you a professor in ebv's??? Me thinks you cant produce bulls to a standard that makes uk cattlemen stand out in the world.
You look at people, there are thin ones fat ones tall ones short ones, all probably eat the same, some convert better than others, animals are no different.
The breed societes are making headway with herd inspections,birth notification random blood sampling...... what more can they do? breed societies( i have heard) have panels that monitor irregular calving patterns, bulls that are over weight for age etc, and believe take it more seriously than u think. What more do you want? You can see if a bull has been hiding in the rashes for a while, but in the end who are they kidding??? maybe you.
I also agree that the breed societies are failing to do enough to satisfy the depth of mistrust out there regarding EBVs.
If in fact the inspections are in place then this should be made public knowledge. Livestock producers should see lists of farms that have been investigated. This would send a message to the industry that standards are being chased and those who do not successfully satisfy the inspectors should be held to account.
Society Sales are afterall run under the auspices of the corresponding breed society. It is they who should enforce strict regulations and see that they are being acrried out. They should ensure therefore that cheating is given no place at all and that those seeking to do so should not have access to society sales which attract top price buyers.
The Carlisle catalogue is a case in point. There are some bulls with some questionable weights. It would be most interesting if those bulls were tested and their herds inspected. We know what the breed averages are for each measurement criteria; we should agree a point where an inspection kicks in and really follow it through. This way we can reassure those paying high prices that the product is what it appears to be.
The vast majority of breeders are decent honest and extremly proficient at producing quality stock. We can be proud of that fact in the UK. The Carlisle catalogue will hopefully be testament to that fact with some real stand out bulls in there where the depth of breeding, figures and visual impact will no doubt produce a quality average.
Have you had a chance to look at the carlise catalogue for the lims yet jonathan?
been through it briefly, was going to try and nail my thoughts down today, but been caught up with FW stuff this afternoon. Preview will be up tomorrow morning all being well, watch this space!
Looking forward to your review Jonathan.
The junior classes look particularly interesting. I would not like to be judging class 21; there are some pretty big hitters in there combining strong figures with good breeding. The bulls from Grahams, Newmeadows and Millgate look interesting prospects. Surprised to see so few bulls from Procters unless they are selling the Vermount sons at home.
HBFA
As you will know dob problems with bulls arent just to do with weights, an older bull in the class will allways look more balanced and mature, bit like a model in a row of gawky teenagers. Also it would actually save a breeder money as there is no rush to feed him as he will be heavy enough.
As you can see from all the posts everyone has an opinion on how breed societies/Signet police breeders, that is the problem, we should not need to have opinions we should know exactly. As I have already said the only way to do that is to have varifiable data.
I dont understand why anyone would resist making sure that everyone is being honest??
Jonathan
No one looks forward to taking stock blogs more than I do, well done and keep it up.
Don't you see that you are defending a system that is made up of if's but's and maybe's there is nothing there for me varify apart from data supplied by a man who is trying to sell me something. If it was a 2nd hand car I would be looking for milage, MOT and a service history, that is all varifiable.
If 64% of the Lim bulls were scanned (I doubt that) why were the scan results not declared??? Was it because they were not as good as the breeeders hoped for? Your comments raised even more questions, why give an estimated MD if there was an actual one measured??
As you can now see there is confusion and doubt about the EBV system, is anybody happy with it?
Agreed All4lims I too like the sound of the juniors. I note the choices but think D Hume´s bulls might also be worth a look. The Graham´s bull will be decent - maybe have to watch the walking though. Like the sound of Newmeadows bull for sure - Ionesco sons have been doing very well in Carlisle. Procters have had lots of Vermount sons through and have to say they have been very good and dowt they want to send out lesser quality to keep the semen selling. Should be a good sale - any guesses for champion?
Limster, I don't think anyone is against making sure the system is honest. However, it is apparent you have a great deal less faith than I do in the honesty of most breeders. To be fair I'd trust most cattle breeders a darned sight more than I'd trust most second-hand car dealers, I know of at least three willing to "clock" mileages and falsify service records upon request! As for why the scan figure aren't revealed I'm afraid that is where some your misunderstanding of the way EBVs work shows through. What you have to bear in mind is that an EBV is a product of a computer calculation which aims to eliminate as far as possible most of the environmental and management differences between herds. Not every bull is scanned and weighed at exactly 400 days, so the computer has to make an allowance for how many days over and under that age a bull is on scan day. For example, say a herd calves over a 12 week period, so the first born bull could be 450days old at scanning, while the last could be 366 days old. Comparing the real data from these bulls would be ridiculous, so the computer calculation takes this age difference into account and produces an EBV for muscle depth based on the true muscle depth, the bull's age, its peer group performance, the performance of related progeny and other such factors. This figure can then be compared to other bulls in the same breed in the knowledge that most of the variables, and hence the guesswork has been eliminated. As for you not believing that 64% of the recorded bulls at Stirling were scanned, all I can suggest is that you telephone Signet yourself and ask the same question I did yesterday - as you said yourself, find the facts not the myths. As a side issue, I know myself from running two pedigree sheep flocks (both recorded) how much effort and forward planning would be needed to cheat the sytem - I haven't got the brains to stay that many steps ahead, and that's in sheep where there is no threat of a whole herd inspection by the RPA to check tags match passports and all stock are tagged and registered by a set date! The consequences of being caught out by the RPA and having an SFP penalty applied are far greater than any breed society can muster. Sorry for the long response, but there was a lot to explain.
wow, this is actually evolving into a coherent and informative debate!
All I'll say is to beware of anything that looks too good to be true, because it probaly isn't.
Jonathan
Thanks for that.
I am aware of how the EBV system works. that is why I know how easy it is to manipulate. As with any computer calculation it is only as good as the data imputted into it.
As I am looking for a bull I want to ensure that the one I chose is genuine, with the current system that is not possible.
I did not make it to Stirling for the Lim show/sale. Going by the pictures on the Limousin web site the judge made a good decision, the champion looks a great bull, was he good and any idea why he went so cheap?
To be honest the Grahams bull wouldn't have been my pick for champion, he was a bit short from his pizzle back and despite the photo didn't have a tremendous second thigh when you saw him in the flesh. A fair bull, but just not a real wow factor one in my mind. From the bull's he had in the overall championship the intermediate champion would probably have been my pick. As to why the champion didn't make much, a combination of factors I guess, first and foremost as you'll have seen the blacks were the pick of the trade and he was red. After that, with Stirling being a mainly commercial trade a junior bull, possibly needing a bit more looking after than many commercial men may want to give him will always struggle to draw the bids - intermediates and seniors are generally more the commercial buyers' choice. And finally, dare I say it his overall figures weren't the best in the book and the commercial buyers are looking to figures more and more. His muscle score is good, but his 200 day weight is a minus, as are his calving figures.
Limster - The Grahams bull going up was a shock to say the least - my pick would have been the senior champ the Mariascote bull - although possibly not big enough for the judge, he was correct, walked well and looked the part in the ring - but equally never going to set the world on fire. The Grahmas bull idn't move as free as I would like to see for a junior and was far too high in the plates and sloped down to the shoulders. agree with JL's point about being too young for Stirling buyers too. A real bad show of bulls overall to be honest with lots of locomotion problems!
Limster - you are talking garbage when you say the system is easy to manipulate - for a start the scanning is done by an independent source and one who is fully trained before they are allowed onto farms to do scans and it is impossible to falsify a scan. Maybe you are trying to tell us that you are manipulating the system if you are in fact a breeder and we should not trust the figures from the bulls that you put forward for sale.
You say that you want a genuine bull and that this is not possible with the current system - I assume you are therefore saying that your bulls are not genuine either assuming you are a breeder as you are tarring everyone with the same brush - and what cost effective system in your opinion is there that would cure this - in my opinion the answer is that there isnt one and the one that is in place is three times that of the last system and is extremely difficult to cheat. There are many people who have given up trying to cheat the system and the admission of this is when the bulls are forwarded with no figures in place - these are the bulls not to trust.
The raw data of the scan results is pointless as it tells the buyer nothing and does not take into account the data from other bulls / females from the same sire and the same age. I think you have to realise that there are a large number of breeders who are completely trustworthy and the information they are putting in is correct and instead of adopting a glass half empty policy have one that is half full and when you see a good bull don't immediately think that is a false one.
I would add that the system I refer to as being three times as good is Breedplan and i know the lims are not on that one.
ALL4LIMS, I see you don't fancy judging class 21 because there may be some good quality bulls forward in it, and they belong to some of the more prominent breeders. In my experience the better the quality of the animals in a class the easier it is to place, and no matter how big a "hitter" the exhibitor, it should make no difference at all to the placings, the bulls should be placed on there merits on the day, and the judge won't have the confusion of the figures to get in his way either.
That's fair comment FM, I'd sooner judge a strong class than a weak one where you struggle to find a beast with at least some of the qualities you want! Some of the senior classes could be like that I fear. Quite sure Harry will know his own mind no matter who's bull it is or who is on the end of it, he'll not be swayed from his gut instinct. I see class 21 as the "class of death" as some bulls which on another day could have walked the class could end up with fourth or fifth place tickets. Should make for a great bit of spectating on Friday though, watch this space for the results....