Grain prices are expected to average between 10% and 20% higher in the next 10 years compared with values in the past decade, as the global economy emerges from recession and demand in developing countries strengthens again.

That is just one of the predictions contained in the latest Agricultural Outlook report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, which also anticipates a 30% rise in vegetable oil prices.

The report suggests that agriculture is already showing more resilience than other industries to the global economic crisis “because food is a basic necessity”.

While food prices had clearly come down in recent months, “over the coming decade prices for all farm commodities except beef and pigmeat are unlikely to fall back to their average levels before the 2007/08 peaks,” says the OECD.

* For more details of the report, see Phil Clarke’s Business Blog