SINGLE FARM payment entitlements may be worth less when traded than some models have predicted, says Crispin Holborow of property consultant Savills.
The firm calculates that a payment of £100/ha would have a theoretical capital value of £240/ha in 2005, falling to only £8/ha by 2011 as the historic element is replaced by the flat regional area payment.
Mr Holborow said experience from the introduction of beef and sheep quotas suggested farmers would be unwilling to pay without market evidence to base their decision on.
“It might start low and by the time it reaches the values in the models, the payment will already be starting to decline.”
Accurately predicting the future value of the payment was extremely difficult, said Mr Holborow.
“We don‘t even know if it should be valued to 2012 or 2009. The system might have been tinkered with by 2009.”
Unknown future rates of modulation, other deductions and exchange rates would also make longer-term valuations very difficult, he added.