Wheat futures prices for November rose a further £2/t to £185/t on Wednesday (11 July) after a US Department of Agriculture report estimated a 37% drop in US maize ending stocks and the lowest yields since 2003.

World maize stocks are estimated down 21.65m tonnes to 134.09m tonnes, with estimated output at 905.23m tonnes, revised downwards from 949.93m tonnes in June. This is almost all due to a reduction in US production forecasts due to drought, as EU-27 production was revised upwards by 1.32m tonnes to 65.47m tonnes.

Global soya bean production was also revised downwards from 271.03m tonnes to 267.16m tonnes, again largely due to a fall in US production.

“The next few weeks are looking very hard to call for UK wheat prices,” said Charlotte Garbutt, senior analyst at AHDB/HGCA.

“The next few weeks are looking very hard to call for UK wheat prices.”
Charlotte Garbutt

“We know we’re looking at a later harvest this year, but we still don’t quite know when it will be. The main problem is likely to be quality, with milling varieties potentially suffering the most.

“Additionally we’ve seen an increase in compound feed use in May this year compared to last, as more animals have had to be kept indoors, which has also had an impact on prices.”