There is a cold wind blowing in Kansas tonight, both literally and figuratively. In the literal sense, this will be the coldest night of the fall, with a forecast low of 18F. The temp was about 40F this afternoon, with a strong 20mph wind biting through me. It has been dry for a week now, and once again I have started the combine up, I am on the final stretch now, the 08 crop is nearly all in the bin.
From the more figurative point of view, all across Kansas and indeed all across the USA the election is no longer the topic of conversation, the economy is. Everyday, almost every hour we hear or read more distressing news, from the biofuel refiner Verasun declaring bankruptcy, and asking to be let out of its contracts with farmers for corn, to Boeing laying off workers in Wichita, to our big three automakers flying to DC in their private jets to beg for a rescue by the American taxpayer. Our faith is shaken in nearly everything from our politicians to our economists. Two years ago at a cattle mineral meeting the speaker told all of us who raise cattle to figure on dealing with corn $5 per bushel and over for at least 5 years, about 3 months ago it was easy to find predictions of corn at $10, today cash corn is trading at the local elevators for about $3.35 per bushel. About 2 months ago all you could hear was oil was headed for $200 per barrel, now it is plunging fast and hard, local crude is selling for about $45. At least one farmer I know allowed himself to be talked into buying all his 2009 fertilizer in August, wrote a check for $80000+, now he is sickened as fertilizer prices plummet as fast as they rose. As the seed salesmen make their pitches telling us to secure our soybean and corn seed for next spring now, I am left wondering how smart it is to write a check for seed today I will not get until April or May, regardless of the discount, because how do I know these companies will even be in business by that time?
One of the most pronounced signs of our economic thin ice is the price of land has fallen about 25% nearly over night. Each land auction seems to be showing that is the case in our area. We have seen several parcels no-sale, something that has not happened in nearly 4 years. Just 7 months ago we were at the beginning of a boom in agriculture like none ever seen, the BBC was wringing their hands over the world food crisis, and everyone who sells to farmers was trying to figure a different angle to get the most money out of us. Today, grain and livestock prices are plunging, and KF spends alot of time with my brow furrowed as I calculate what it will cost to plant a crop next spring versus what crops will sell for. It is little comfort to me that our springs, creeks and rivers run wide open today, because past experience tells me that really wet years such as this one are almost always followed by "dusters". If you have no crop, it doesn't matter what the price is. I can only imagine that as much as I cussed the constant rain of 2008, I may well spend most of 2009 hoping and praying for rain.
Thanksgiving is one week from today, the day set aside in our nation for most of us to thank God for what we have. I am thankful to be sure, things could be so much worse. But as this cold wind blows across the farms, cities and small towns of our nation, I am left wondering what we will be thinking and thanking God for next Thanksgiving.