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26 US states declare drought disaster

Last post Mon, Oct 29 2012 16:41 by Peter Wells. 95 replies.
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  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 0:02

    26 US states declare drought disaster

    this is getting serious

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 5:21 In reply to

    • AllyR
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    Yes, I think so. And here too with the wet
    When in Rome, do as the Romans do.
  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 8:56 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    According to Bloomberg, it's not going away any time soon.

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 10:32 In reply to

    • Peter Wells
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    I suppose that experience of the droughts and dust bowls of the, was it the thirties, will help US officials to take the most useful support steps for farmers and communities this time.

    The Bloomberg report suggests that practical steps are already underway. I await KF's next posting.

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 13:06 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    Hopefully, Peter Wells, allusions to 1934 and to 1936 will prove premature.

    Much more recently, the crop year 1972 would surely be quite closely approximate to current circumstances?

    Grain prices more than doubled then (or trebled, if one reads David Richardson) to £48/ton (£600 in today's money) because of severe drought in the USSR.    

    Quite why David Richardson was selling at £16 when we never got less than £22 remains to be explained.

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 13:24 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     All they need to do is announce a hose pipe ban and  the heavens will open. Never fails !

    http://www.holidaycambriancoast.co.uk/

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 15:02 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     

    Can't we ship some of our rain over to them so they could spread on the land.
  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 15:35 In reply to

    • henarar
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    If all the planes that were going that way hooked up a cloud and towed it out there

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 16:30 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    This certainly isn't news to anyone farming over here, farmers have known we were in trouble for at least 4 weeks.  As far as the low interest loans go, in a situation like this another loan doesn't do much other than prolong the agony. 

    I wasn't around in the 1930s, so I can't compare what it was like then to now,  No one had crop insurance during the 30s, that in itself made that worse.  I really don't know the percentage of farmers with insurance,or the level of coverage they have, I suspect the farther into the cornbelt you get the less coverage there is since they rarely get a crop failure.  

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 16:39 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     Livestock producers will take this the hardest, since the government has fewer programs geared toward them,   Water and feed are both problems, when you run out of water that is a very hard situation to remedy, much harder than running out of feed.  There is an insurance option for pasture and hay land that few people use, I actually took both out for this year because my gut feeling was we would have another drought, based more than anything on the fact we haven't had a multi-year drought since the 1980s.  I am anxiously waiting to see how this will actually work, since the entire pasture/hay program is based on rainfall at various locations, I don't know where these measurement stations are or if they have benefited from spotty rains. 

    No matter how you slice it though, it is far better to raise a crop and raise hay and grass for your livestock than it is to take insurance claims, but thank goodness and the US taxpayer that we do have this safety net.  Even so, I am certain this will push some producers out.

    I do read weather reports that perhaps this drought will moderate in the next month, the damage is done to the corn, we have what we have, soybeans and grain sorghum will be somewhat more forgiving, but they are hurt permanently as well, just not to the point they couldn't make a passable crop.

    Everyone was so excited this spring with the early planted crop, it was planted early because it was hot and dry early, in retrospect that really wasn't anything to celebrate.

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 20:16 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    KF, it hasnt made the bbc news yet, only bloomberg, and very little is being said unless you are watching the cbot go haywire.

    the bloomberg guy last night said the corn would be down by 50%, not the 15% quoted. is that true?

    back home, this is the first dry day in july

  • Thu, Jul 12 2012 21:21 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    glasshouse:
    it hasnt made the bbc news yet,
     

     http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/9384947/US-drought-threatens-to-fuel-food-inflation.html

    glasshouse:
    back home, this is the first dry day in july
     

    P***ing down here.

    http://www.holidaycambriancoast.co.uk/

  • Fri, Jul 13 2012 22:15 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     I don't think anyone can say with any certainty what percent the corn crop will be cut.  50% seems awfully drastic.  There are parts of the country getting rain, there are parts that are irrigated.  15% is a huge loss nationwide, 50% would be catastrophic.

    I heard this morning one farmer lost 29 head of cattle to blue green algae about 20 miles from here.  If it is not one thing it is another with this darned dry weather.

  • Fri, Jul 13 2012 22:33 In reply to

    • old mcdonald
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    kf, All I can offer is sympathy. We have all heard the expression "I know how you feel", but unless somebody has farmed through a real drought, then, "No you do not not" is the only response. Things ae pretty rough in SW Europe this summer too after the dry winter, but at least everybody knows it will not rain for at least another 10 to 14 weeks, so they live with it. Totally different when you can usually expect some rain - and therefore much worse for you than it is for us. Hope the dry ends for you soon.

    www.oldmcdonaldsolives.com
  • Sat, Jul 14 2012 15:42 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     Never fear old Mac, we know this has to happen from time to time, we are not happy about it, but secure in the knowledge 6 months from now we will be freezing our asses off, it may not be wet, but it will be cold.

    Forecast this morning is for dry and 100s all week.

  • Sat, Jul 14 2012 18:26 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    so is the corn trade on a wild ride again?

  • Sat, Jul 14 2012 19:43 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     It will probably be crazy until there is some definitive test of what yields are actually going to be.  There comes a point where corn gets too high to make ethanol out of.  It use to be feed was the driving force, now it is ethanol.  If oil gets cheaper, I can't see how corn can get a lot higher, but I am wrong at least 50% of the time.

    The front page of the Emporia Gazette today is dominated by an article about cattle being forced off grass early, this is the real deal, not just a dry snap.

  • Sat, Jul 14 2012 22:35 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    kf, again we are at the other end of the scale. we have had about ten inches of rain this month.

    no silage made or likely to be made, beans a write off , barley crap, wheat hanging on, everyone going stir crazy.

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 10:33 In reply to

    • Brisel
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    KF - How many ethanol plants are now shut down due to "unfavourable market" factors i.e. Corn too high to warrant losing money on production when oil is under $90/barrel Nymex?

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 12:53 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    the ethanol plants cant just shutdown, because ethanol is mandated  at ten percent in petrol.,

    it is not a "market orientated " policy.

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 14:07 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

                       not a "market orientated " policy

     

    Quite so, glasshouse, it's political.

    And when Obama introduces an ethanol derogation to safeguard his election prospects against rising food prices, it'll be £20 off UK wheat overnight.

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 14:32 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

     I have no idea how many are shutdown, I do know they can shutdown, because even though there is a mandate to blend ethanol, the government can't make the plants run. 

    According to the BBC we have the same problem, the jet stream, each of us wants to be on the other side of it.  

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 23:07 In reply to

    • Brisel
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    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    There might be a mandate, but there is another way - just pay the fines for not producing your quota.

    If you are the owner of Vivergo on Humberside or Ensus on Teeside, and it costs you £500,000 to shut down the plant & pay the workers to stay at home then another £500,000/month to pay the fines for not meeting your Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation. Current market forces mean you are losing £2 million per month. Not a difficult decision?

    Demand rationing will take the edge off these silly market levels. The cure for high prices is high prices. The laws of supply & demand will correct the imbalance, even if it takes a year or two. Or are we finally entering this Malthusian dilemma where we can't meet the demand of our expanding human population?

  • Sun, Jul 15 2012 23:52 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    brisel, i would argue that these prices are far from silly, and £200 wheat will become the norm.

    its the £130 price that is silly, as costs have rocketed across the world.

  • Mon, Jul 16 2012 11:30 In reply to

    Re: 26 US states declare drought disaster

    big rises this morning on wheat.

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