As wheat heads for £90 a ton who feels conned? Just about all off us spent well over £300 on N after being convinced it would only go higher if we could get it at all. Since Christmas we have been told wheat would be short again it nearly went right way and now its in free fall again! What do you make off it?

Who has conned you Dougal ? Yes there has been high volatility again but with some forward planning you can take advantage. Sell forward if the price leaves you a decent margin or elect not to grow if it doesn't. There is no point putting seed in the ground and just hoping that the yield and price will conspire to leave you in profit.

 Yes, last seasons N cost £330 but today the same stuff is £175. Stick two fingers up to Grow-how and buy imported N at £165 or Urea at £210.

 I can't grow feed wheat profitably so I don't try. I don't feel conned though.

Sounds like you are cross. Plenty of marketting tools available to reduce risk and volatility.

 

markw:

Yes, last seasons N cost £330 but today the same stuff is £175

Quick, quick, quick - going up quick!

Or is that a con in the making?

you could always stop using nitram, and change onto hen muck and biosolids.

just buy clothes pegs for the neighbours noses

 Re 'forward planning'. How often do you do any backward planning, I wonder. 

Backward planning, AKA hindsight is a system I have often wished I could use, but the equipment required always looks a bit specialised to me (a tardis or HG Wells type time machine) so I'll just carry on with just wishing I'd done things differently!!!

Have always tended to go for uk AN, but this year have ordered imported on principle. Still feeling miffed after last year !

For people renting land it is not as easy as just not planting as if you do that you are sure to make a loss,ie your rent! So plant you must unless your landlord does not chardge rent if you do not plant a crop which i have not heard off. Selling forward is a great tool but surely no one sells forward to make a loss? So we wait and listen to all the good advice that prices will be going up on the back off growing population and lower plantings and here we are today!

Too right conned again!!

I am afraid we all our own worst enemies, there is only one way we can improve prices is by restricting supply, and we all know that is never going to happen (there is always sombody who will sell)..

The problem we have in the UK is that there are still far too many hobby farmers out there (hobby farmers IMO may well be farming several thousands of acres but the enterprise may well be funded from a non-ag source)...you do not see this in Europe or the US and certainly not in South America.. Until we get some realism into the industry we are going to see crap prices..

Nail square on the head Jim. Farming is a great fun way to lose money if you have it! Nobody in the UK makes a fortune and decides to become a builder hence they can charge good money but give an Englishmen a bundle off cash and sure enough alot off them want to be farmers!

trouble with uk farming is you always have young fools willing to pay silly rents, so forcing up everyone else s rent.

they dont usually last long, but do immeasurable damage.

the victorians called them men of straw.

True to form the Governments in the World cannot or do not want to see what is happening. Speculators are running the Markets in Oil and Grain,Hedge Funds and now Pension Funds are selling huge Parcels of Futures to depress the Market.They know that from all around the World predictions on Crops etc look poor.When they have driven the prices down by selling huge amounts all at once the price of Grain will have fallen dramatically they are then buying Forward on these depressed prices and know that they have distorted the Market by their actions and when Farmers and Millers realise what is happening these Plundering Rogues have sold and gone.Who has lost; good honest ,decent Folks in Farming and Grain processors. This practice is ruining People and taking away any confidence that is around.The best way to beat these rogues is just as Porsche did with VW by not selling any Grain cheaply so that the Forward price does not fall and the Hedge funds will have sold their futures cheaply.

Just seen on Bloomberg, boss from a big Futures Trading Co coming out with the usual" how do I keep myself in a job claptrap"answer "by telling everyone that we need Futures Traders and that more people investing in futures Trading would help the Market" [god makes you cry ] Then asked what is the Hot Commodity to be in   "Guess what"   Wheat. Well what a surprise.