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Risk of food shortages within 20 years

Last post Mon, Jan 18 2010 20:16 by glasshouse. 32 replies.
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  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 15:26

    Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    The Sunday Telegraph reports today that the Government is about to set out a major new food strategy.  Much of its content may not be that surprising to Britain's farmers as it tackles climate change, depleting energy sources and warns against complacency about where future food supplies come from.    The full story is here:  

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/agriculture/food/6924216/Britain-must-produce-more-food-government-to-warn.html

    No doubt we will find out more about this from Hilary Benn when he speaks at the Oxford Farming Conference, which starts on Tuesday. The challenge of feeding the world is the main topic of the two day event.   Farmers faced initiative overload from Government in 2009 so it will be good news to have more clarity on how it all ties together in a long term food policy.       

    Jane at FW
  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 15:54 In reply to

    • herself
    • Top 200 Contributor
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    • Kitchen

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    I would like to think the government had a long term food policy but the evidence for such a thing is rather lacking. We have to welcome this very late change however grudgingly. Will we get the speech as a whole live on here or perhaps a transcript later? (He his self, the kids have nicked my laptop)
  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 16:16 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Happy new year

    The FW team will be at the Oxford Farming Conference and will make sure you get the details as soon as we have them.  Hilary Benn is speaking Tuesday morning so the story will go on www.fwi.co.uk promptly after that.  .   
    Jane at FW
    Filed under:
  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 17:20 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Jane,

          I think you hit the Nail on the Head with "arriving at the last minute", the usual ploy of Politicans, Lawyers etc so that they either cannot be qustione d or brought to disrepute before the event or the Election Pledge being presented just to satisfy the waverers on the Green Verge.

      Why, out of respect for Mankind in the UK, dont you ask Benn if his studies at University on Eastern European Politics equips him for his vision on Agriculture and supposed Climate Change.

  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 20:54 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    You want to believe them, but personally l rather subscribe to the flat earth theory

  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 21:36 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Lets be brutally honest, the chap can say what he wants - he wont be there in 6 months time.

    C'est de la bombe baby boom!
    -Seine-Saint-Denis Style-
  • Sun, Jan 3 2010 21:52 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    TeslaCoils:

    Lets be brutally honest, the chap can say what he wants - he wont be there in 6 months time.

     And he knows it. I think that attitude can explain one or two of the ministers comments of late.

    "Dogs look up to us, cats look down on us, but pigs treat us as equals." (Sir Winston Churchill)
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 11:36 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Here is the stategy if you wnat to wade through it. Be warned if you have a slow connection - it is lots of lovely PDFs

    http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/strategy/

     

    Content Editor for Farmers Weekly
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 11:42 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Benn made the full announcement about the stratgey this morning, here's the story: http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2010/01/05/119366/OFC-2010-Benn-unveils-Government-food-strategy.htm

    There's no clear indication about what these grand plans are going to mean for farmers though - I'm off to see if I can find Hilary to ask him...

    Midlands correspondent, Farmers Weekly
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 11:46 In reply to

    • He his-self
    • Top 50 Contributor
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    • North East Scotland

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

     I read the speech. It can be summed up as "My name is Hillary Benn and today I bring you ................   Nothing, nothing at all, nope not a thing really." 

     

    To quote him from the speech “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” Well we get rid of you for a start. Nothing in the speech, is there anything, anything at all in the strategy documents?

    A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything.
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 11:56 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Just had a quick look at the strategy. This is what farmers have been tasked with:

    "Improve profitability, productivity and competitiveness, and produce safe food sustainably and in line with what the market wants. Build a highly skilled and innovative sector. Manage risk and plan for climate change."

    It continues with:

    Our principles for working with stakeholders will include:•
    Mutual trust, openness and transparency in all our dealings, including no surprises;
    Early engagement on issues;
    Working together collaboratively;
    Constructive challenge;
    Acknowledging disagreement and being open about why we disagree;
    Basing our discussions on evidence.

    There are several pages on how DEFRA will measure success, but I can't see any specific things in there that say anything about what farmers have to do, or indeed anything that we haven't heard a hundred times before...

    Midlands correspondent, Farmers Weekly
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 11:59 In reply to

    • Dick
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    • Joined on Thu, Jul 12 2007

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

     It reminds me of Communists' collectivisation of Russian farms in order to increase food output, which actually resulted in the most appaling starvation the world had ever seen. I expect we will get yet more socialist rubbish from our vegetarian Minister the only  result of which will be a an increase in red tape and bulls**t. I am pleased to read that the Tories have promised a supermarket ombudsman at least they are moving in the right direction.

    Dick

  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 13:04 In reply to

    • motley
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    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    caroline stocks:
    Just had a quick look at the strategy.

    I also.

    Happy New Year. My New Year predictions are that Westminster will continue to **** on agricultural in Britain from a great height, and Mr Gummer will be replace by one of dave's dollies bussed into to Suffolk from the smoke.

    The thing I took from the 80 odd pages is that the focus is still on food NOT farming. The second thing is the remarkable way that these policy perverts have hijacked the word resilience.

    Brown watch 150 days and now counting.

    Brown be gone.

    It is looking much as if the man from the last of the summer wine will be able to check out Nora Batty from a much improved position in society, as his mate Clegg is being courted so assiduously by crash and babyface dave. 

    Farming is for us, all.
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 16:02 In reply to

    • Peter Wells
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    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    caroline stocks:
      This is what farmers have been tasked with:

    "Improve profitability, productivity and competitiveness, and produce safe food sustainably and in line with what the market wants. Build a highly skilled and innovative sector. Manage risk and plan for climate change."

    It continues with:

    Our principles for working with stakeholders will include:•
    Mutual trust, openness and transparency in all our dealings, including no surprises;
    Early engagement on issues;
    Working together collaboratively;
    Constructive challenge;
    Acknowledging disagreement and being open about why we disagree;
    Basing our discussions on evidence.

    Caroline. I recognise a page from a handbook by a management consultant I see one. This is a  page from any text book on Business Objectives and Principles of Operation.

    I give up on the man. He is man of lofty principles but lowly scruples.

    He, like his colleagues and the Labour Party is out of energy, out of ideas and hopefully will soon be out of office.

  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 16:43 In reply to

    • He his-self
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    • North East Scotland

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

     I have only managed a glance at the "pamphlet" of 24 pages. Words fail me about it, it could be about anything and most of it is about anything other than farming. To produce we need profit, business confidence and access to labour and infrastructure investment. Where's the beef Mr Benn? How are we already farming and the next generation starting out going to deliver this utopia? Will you commit to capital grants for new investment? Will you pay the student loans of new Agriculture graduates? Will you actually do anything at all?

    A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything.
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 16:43 In reply to

    • herne
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    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

     The Solution is simple, those who can afford to eat will eat, those who can`t afford to eat will die, its the way of nature.

    If God denies me, their is always the Devil

    Born to the first wife of Adam, unstained by the sins of Eve.

    It is time to keep your appointment, with the wickerman.

    The apples of the lord were rotten to the core

    Wash away your darkest sins if that is what you believe? But keep in mind that if do, who is it you deceive?
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 17:15 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    TeslaCoils:

    Lets be brutally honest, the chap can say what he wants - he wont be there in 6 months time.

    Sad, but very true TeslaCoils!

    For a round-up of quirky rural news see my blog Field Day
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 17:23 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    The problem is this, farmers are still seen as dozey worzles instead of skilled businessmen in charge of a multifacited and technically difficult business.

    One day perhaps we will get a minister who could do it him/herself too not just talk out it - but I'm not sure there are many who could!!

    It may be flat but at least you can see a long way
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 17:51 In reply to

    • He his-self
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    • Joined on Sun, May 22 2005
    • North East Scotland

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    A question, does anyone know where in the mass of paper it explains who is going to pay to get the increase in production?
    A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything.
  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 18:19 In reply to

    • katndog2
    • Top 500 Contributor
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    • the hills of mid-wales

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    I expect the boffins at Whitehall are expecting this food to be produced by magic. I started to read the summary posted by Caroline and by the time it got anywhere near my brain one of the little voices was singing "la la la, heard it all before, blah, blah, blah" It was typical waffle spouted by people with no connection to food production and no desire to take responsibility for any of it. I believe one of the first bits mentioned market forces, which can be used as a get out clause when their good ideas fall apart, and the added bonus is that the blame can be firmly laid at the farmer's feet while the people who came up with this fantastic hot air kick the floor, while whistling a jolly tune and pretending it was nothing to do with them. Angry

  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 20:37 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Hhs, I believe, as usual, that it will be down to us farmers to pay for this increase i production ! But then that depends on how many of us are left after 2012 ?.

  • Tue, Jan 5 2010 23:34 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Lets all get real about this subject.When has there been real Food Shortage in the Western World, the answer is the First and Second World War and then only in Europe and Japan.There have been times of annual and sometimes biannual but against the main Wars there has never been a real shortage of food.

      Population increase: Here we see another prediction,unsound, carried out by Computors with Instruction from Academics with no Handle on real life and very often with a slant to their query on the subject or to the answers they get and Interpret for their Findings.My Travels around the World have found the Young in all countries saying they are not going to have a large Family because they want some enjoyment from life and not a life of drudgery for all.The predicted Population Stats are from past figures and that is dangerous predicting.

      World production: well I think in a lot of Industries and Countries they are on Tickover.If the UK got rid of Set a side and grew for ultimate production Cereal production could raise by 40 -50 %.If the By products were used [ Chaff, Straw, Husks, Residues etc], then a very strong output could be achieved in just these core Industries let alone Horticulture which is the sleeping Giant.

      So with the exception of War [God forbid ] no Field of Gold and there never has been so what about shortages of Fertilisers and Capital which do look like more certain possibilites.The Farmer who has a Business that develpes a lot of Organic Waste is going to score and the Farmer with his own Capital is going to be in a prime position and I think if I were 20 again they would be my aims and not to rely on Predictions from Electronic Machines with artifical Logic and without the programed input that the poor old Human Brain has accumulated.

     

  • Wed, Jan 6 2010 8:06 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Excellent common sense approach BB.

    The population growth in the UK was in decline through to the mid 80's and currently stands at 0.65% (World Bank stats from multiple sources) more interestingly is the working age of the population and the very real fact that with near static population growth and an ageing population we will all have to work beyond official retirement age or import labour to do our work for us.

    Production,  you are right food production could easily go up and in the way's you suggest but also I predict industrial sites will be brought into production to manufacture food.

    Input costs, those based on fossil fuel are obviously of great concern but alternatives exist that could be sourced as co-products of food production so having a cost benefit that reduces the impact of rising energy costs. There will always be low cost proteins/calories in a processed food package to help keep food affordable but I am also concerned about the effect of these 'nutrients' on human health and the potential to cost society more in the long run as we all pay to treat obesity, diabetes and other food related disease. Affordable food that increases the demand for medical intervention is a real issue IMO.

  • Wed, Jan 6 2010 9:57 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    katndog2:
    little voices was singing "la la la, heard it all before, blah, blah, blah" It was typical waffle spouted by people with no connection to food production
     

    You're right, it is all stuff we've heard before and things the industry have been banging on about for years. I spoke to Peter Kendall yesterday though, and he was happy about what was being said - he reckoned a lot of the language in the document was lifted straight from NFU speeches and reports.

    He said when you think what the government was saying back in 2002 (when Beckett more or less said farmers should be park keepers and we should import food), the fact an official document is now saying that farming should be the "progressive industry of the future" and that the public should recognise the importance of farmers is a huge step forward.

    Midlands correspondent, Farmers Weekly
  • Wed, Jan 6 2010 10:42 In reply to

    Re: Risk of food shortages within 20 years

    Have your say...the DEFRA sandbox welcomes your feedback on the 2030 strategy thingy.

    http://sandbox.defra.gov.uk/food2030/contact-us/
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