It undermines the findings of the mid term June 2004 census which indicated a recovery in numbers, especially with regard to replacement gilts.
By the Dec survey, a downward trend had set in, with a sharp overall drop of 17.2% in the number of in pig gilts on farms.
One cause for optimism is that the number of maiden gilts of 50kg and over has risen by 14.9%, but it remains to be seen if this will be carried through to June.
The drop in the size of the national herd will put further pressure on finished pig numbers and the slaughtering sector.
UK weekly slaughter numbers published by the Meat and Livestock Commission are now estimated at 172,000 head compared with 240,000 four years ago.
Unless there is a reversal in this 25 year downward trend, more abattoir closures and mergers can be expected, cutting competition in the market as a whole.
In the absence of home-produced product, rising pigmeat consumption in the UK will be met by further imports, which already account for almost 70% of the market.
DEFRA census results
|Dec 2003||Dec 2004||% Change|
|Sows in pig||277||268||-3.2|
|Gilts in pig||61||51||-17.2|
|Breeding herd total||419||384||-8.3|
|Boars used for service||17||16||-6.9|
|Gilts over 50kg||49||57||14.9|
|Total breeding pigs||486||457||-5.9|