By Roger Chesher

THE fall of the Pound has introduced another variable into the mix for new season fertiliser pricing.

In the absence of the Royal Show and Cereals talking shops, the major manufacturers have taken to the road to discuss the prospects for new-season sales, not only with merchants but also with farmers groups.

This development has upset some of the trade, who see the end-user as solely their preserve and are concerned at the prospect, real or imaginary, of manufacturers selling direct.

But in this insecure and ever-changing marketplace, manufacturers must surely look to every opportunity; internet, direct, groups, merchant, to safeguard market share.

As yet, new prices are not published, as suppliers seek to maximise end of season sales and also wait until the final moment for conflicting factors to evolve.

Urea prices are very low, around US$95 FOB (free on board) but this has yet to translate into an on farm price.

Granular Urea will, however, obviously be keenly priced.

On the other hand, thanks to Mr. Blairs fixation with the Euro, the Pound is now weak, thus increasing not only P and K raw material costs, but putting upward pressure on imported AN.

Whereas 12 months ago, AN was 78 CIF (carriage, insurance, freight), the exporter received US$118 with the pound at US$1.52.

At US$1.37 he would today only receive 106, a shortfall of US$12, so the projected on-farm new-season price of imported AN at 95 is now looking tight.

On the agronomic front, evidence is beginning to emerge from tissue and grain analysis that ignoring sulphur over the last couple of years is beginning to have a significant detrimental affect on arable crops.

This nutrient could be set for quite a comeback next season, which makes sense, as it is currently extremely cheap and markedly improves the efficiency of the more expensive nitrogen.

CURRENT PRICES

New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5% Anticipated new-season (July) domestic nitrogen Imported urea (if available) Imported AN Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16 Blended 25.5.5 Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t
June 120-124 July 108-110 No market 116-120 ex-stock 116-117 113-115 140
NPK June, pay cash July, imported N
Complex 25.5.5 118-120 95-100
15.15.20 143
20.10.10/29.5.5 121
17.17.17 148
After-cut NK cash 0.24.24 TSP (47% P2O5) bagged Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged
118 114-116 125 122

 

IRELAND
Forecast spring prices

  Urea

CAN

24.6.12

0.16.36

Complex compounds
27.6.6

Northern Ireland Market over 122 148 No market 148
 

CAN

24.21/2.10

Urea, imported

27.21/2.5

Republic of Ireland* 145-155 185 190 187

*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.

*Prices in the Republic are IR

  • IR1=UK78.74p; US$1=UK72.62p on 13 June

     

    Note All illustrated prices are based on 20-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

    Source: Bridgewater Partnership

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