Fertiliser prices high – and will rise further

By Roger Chesher

A LOOK back to the market report of one year ago revealed NK prices at 88-95; a far cry from the 114-115 currently realised by the majors.

Depending on your viewpoint, fertiliser prices are either now high, or were ridiculously low a year ago.

Taking a historical viewpoint the latter is nearer the truth, as there are still price rises to come before the market reaches “normality”.

From the majors perspective, there is structure in the aftercut market, something unheard-of in recent years.

Last year the price tumbled as the season progressed and silage making moved from South to North. This year the price has been stable and set to rise in June to 116.

Volumes are down a little, possibly because the season is later (all that rain!), definitely because cash terms delay purchase and perhaps because of some transfer of business to the blenders.

Sulphur products are selling well; not keeping up with forecasts related to agronomic need, but slowly growing.

Domestic nitrogen should be priced at 118 in June, not quite the forecasted 120.

Obviously there is resistance to higher pricing, to which the market has responded.

There is a demand for Russian AN which cannot be fully met, but boats are coming in and being offloaded direct to farm at 95+/tonne, nearer 100 for smaller loads, in the East and South West.

Blenders are working to supply products below 110, but this can result in some unusual analyses, 20.0.10 for example, to keep the price down.

25.0.16 is a more typical product, so as ever, check unit value carefully.