29 August 1997
IGC forecasts grains, wheat and maize

THE International Grains Council has forecast a big reduction in grains output for China in 1996-97. Although Chinas wheat production is expected to be up, the nations total grain harvest is tipped to reach 104 million tonnes, compared with 127mt last year.

World production of wheat for 1997-98 is now forecast at 586mt, against 581mt in 1996-97. The figure is 1mt more than last months forecast.

But the monthly report says the total masks major adjustments for some countries. Increases in wheat production for China, India, Russia and the US offset reductions for the European Union, central and eastern Europe, Canada, Argentina and Australia.

World stocks of coarse grains are forecast to fall to 102mt by the end of the 1997-98 harvest. It was 119mt at the end of 1996-97.

The IGC said sharp decreases in estimated maize harvests in China and the US would mean a significant 21mt reduction in world production of coarse grains to 875mt.

  • Financial Times 29/08/97 page 23