21 July 1995

Prospects bullish

A BULLISH arable outlook was forecast by Aubourn Farming managing director Philip Wynn at a recent open day at Willoughby Farms, near Alford, Lincs.

This harvest promised to be good, according to company forecasts. More grains and better ear numbers than last year meant wheat yields would be up to 0.3t/ha (0.12t/acre) above last years levels. Barleys were also set for a rise and winter rape crops should be as good, he thought.

That coupled with an "excellent" area aid rate, at 84p/ecu, would see profits on a 404ha (1000-acre) cereal farm, producing 7.65t/ha (3.1t/acre) of wheat, 6.42t/ha (2.6t/acre) of winter barley and 3.08t/ha (1.25t/acre) of winter rape, rocket by 63% this harvest compared with 1994.

Mr Wynn forecast a fall in commodity prices of 5% next season. This, coupled with higher seed (up 3%), fertiliser (up 10%) and spray costs (up 6%) and stable yields and area aid, would see 1996 profits drop to 13% ahead of 1994. &#42