By FWi staff

WORLD production of coarse grains is expected to be 16 million tonnes lower than in 1998, despite an increase of 1m tonnes this month to 878m tonnes, according to International Grain Councils monthly report.

“Overall, the smaller crops in the USA, China and North Africa were only partly offset by higher output in the CIS, South America and South Africa,” says the report.

World trade is expected to be 3m tonnes higher at 102m tonnes on the back oh higher imports of maize by far East Asia and barley by China and Syria.


World estimates – coarse grain
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00
(forecast as at
19/01/2000)
99-00
(forecast as at
23/02/2000)
Production 915 893 894 877 878
Trade 92 87 95 99 102
Consumption 879 886 876 879 878
Stocks 126 133 152 151 152

Despite more trade, consumption is forecast to fall 1m tonnes to 878m tonnes as a result of lower feed wheat and non-cereal feed prices decreasing the use of coarse grains in the EC.

Although lower than last months predictions this is still 2m tonnes above last years levels and record numbers of cattle on feed in the US are expected to stimulate demand during the rest of the season, notes the IGC.

The figure for world stocks rises by 1m tonnes to 152m tonnes, matching the total for the previous year, says the report.