Fertiliser market report- November 2006

The price of urea on the global market is rising, now some $30 higher than last month, which, if farmers were buying, would place UK farm prices for granular material in the region of £183 /t.


Those who bought early in the £160’s/t have secured a good deal, but not all the cargoes sold on farm earlier have yet arrived and the supply situation is tight. Time now, perhaps to look at the small print of the contract, but the nature of the UK merchant trade is such that, fortunately for the farmer, most are watertight.


The home fertiliser market remains quiet, but with these international price rises, domestic material looks very cheap and there is an expectation that things are about to change.


The industry expects to sell another 1M/t of nitrogen before the end of the season, together with 1.5M/t NPK compounds, with or without sulphur.
 
A lack of supply is driving global prices upwards, but the constant and totally unrealistic talk of unexpectedly cheaper gas costs is holding UK farmers back from committing to purchase.


With low order books, the inescapable laws of supply and demand within the UK are therefore still holding the domestic price of ammonium nitrate at the mid £150’s level per tonne. This is unsustainable and at these levels, even the Russians are not bothering to compete.


It is, of course good news for farmers as the price is now unlikely to jump £15 to meet the manufacturers’ ambitions for £170/t in January.
£160 is nearer the mark.


The same has happened to compound prices which have trimmed back a small amount, but are set to rise in line with increasing costs of  P and K


Interestingly, “traditional” pre-Christmas purchasing is not happening and farmers wishing to cash in on the current situation must be quick of the mark before the ever lengthening holiday season starts.


After Christmas the price structure must surely be different. And, with large tonnages to deliver the logistical problem will be great. Each year we seem to hear this warning, yet fertiliser deliveries, by and large, manage to get through.


But safety and security legislation makes it more difficult each year to source expensively trained and licensed hauliers, thus adding to the problem.


In Ireland, prices quoted are speculative as no farm business is likely to be completed before the early spring. Manufacturers, merchants and importers are busily spending this period ensuring future supplies at, hopefully, reasonable prices.


 


Great Britain

















Straight


Domestic N
(34.5%N) SP5


Imported AN 
only Lithuanian


Imported urea


Liquid UAN
37kg N/100litre
 (29.6%N/t)

 

October pricing now £155


Poor supplies
£146


Granular £183.No real supplies


No market


 











TSP (47%P2O5) £148 upward trend  
Muriate of Potash (60%K2O) £148 upward trend  

 












































































Compound


N.P.K


Complex


Blended

     

25.5.5


£155


From £148

     

15.15.20


£168


 

     

20.10.10 / 27.5.5


£158


From £145

     

17.17.17


£173


 

     

Aftercuts (NK)


 


No market

     

27.6.6 (imported)


 


 

     

32.5.0 (imported)


 


No market

     

Autumn grades (PK)


 


£134-138

     

 


 


 

     

 






Trace elements Copper, zinc, selenium,
cobalt Iodine and sodium

£11.80/acre pack

Ireland
























 
Urea

CAN

24.6.12
aftercut**

25.5.5

27.6.6
complex***
Northern
Ireland
No market £152 £180 £160 £170
Republic†
of Ireland
No data, but competitive €200-225 €275  

€275 (CCF)


€245 import blend


*†Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides.  Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Known as 24.2½.10 blend in the Republic of Ireland
**Known as 27.2½.5 in ROI







Note All illustrated prices are based upon 24 tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.
Source: Bridgewater

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