The fertiliser market is still in bullish mood and there is little sign of prices falling before the spring, writes Farmers Weekly commentator Roger Chesher.

With higher nitrogen prices indicated last month and increases in both phosphate and potash as forecast, it is hardly surprising that NPK prices have also risen.

But hopefully the major price adjustments have now been made and we can run into the spring with relatively small £2/t per month adjustments. This is borne out by Yara who list a March delivery, pay April, price for compounds such as 25.5.5 at £323/t.

While the 80% of arable farmers who bought fertiliser earlier in the season will be insulated from current or future price rises, the situation will be a severe blow to livestock producers who face a double whammy of higher feed and fertiliser prices.

Today’s offers are hardly being snapped up in the marketplace. The prices quoted in the table below are new offer prices and do not reflect any material in the pipeline.

Trying to take a spot view in today’s market can be confusing. This is because there is presently a £90/t or so spread of nitrogen values as manufacturers are still busily delivering fertiliser purchased at differing points in the season at different prices.

Three values are key: Triple superphosphate at £392/t; muriate of potash at £332/t and (typically Egyptian) urea at $385/t FOB or £315-330/t on-farm.

There are no current drivers to reduce the latter price, indeed the contrary is true, as India is still waiting in the wings with an unfulfilled order book for 12mt. Bioethanol demand is up, corn plantings in America are up, fertiliser supplies are short and share prices for fertiliser companies are rising.

The old adage of “up corn, down horn” was never truer. It is no consolation to say we have been here before, but the livestock sector is resourceful in utilising manures, rationing purchases to meet budgets and emptying barns of previous stocks.