August fertiliser bills put pressure on farm cash flows
There has been speculation over the anticipated end of the Chinese internal tax on urea exports. This, it was hoped, would end in September but today there are fears that the tax will be increased to 185%, making it even less likely that Chinese urea will soon enter the global market again.
There are fears that 2.5-2.9 million tonnes could be in warehouses, stockpiled for export should restrictions be relaxed. Taking such a quantity off the market will not have had the desired effect of pushing the internal price down, stimulating home sales and reducing food prices for the Chinese people. Therefore the period of tax is extended and the level increased.
The conflict in Georgia has halted its fertiliser exports, but there is still plenty of AN available from Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Poland from £365-385/t for October.
Conversely, domestic AN is sold out until January when it is priced around £410/t., whereas Urea is plentiful around £500. A September top-up of liquid UAN will cost £1.15/ kilo N, roughly equivalent to £400/t for 34.5%AN.
October prices for compound fertiliser (NPK/S) have now been published and reflect the horrendous price level of phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K). Triplesuperphosphate is now £700/t and surrounded by fears that currency exchange rates may push it as high as £760. Muriate of potash stands at £600 to £630/t and many arable farmers are starting to join their grassland cousins in exhibiting price resistance to these nutrients.
Attention to agronomy detail is now seen as paramount, and not before time according to fertiliser agronomists who have sometimes felt themselves the Cinderellas opf their profession in the past. For example, on an 11t/ha crop of wheat, removal of 60% of the straw denies the following crop of £70/ha value of P and K.
Although harvest is late, especially north of the border, yields are good and general opinion states that nitrogen, despite modern prices, still pays.
A further strong market is anticipated therefore, but perhaps not with the usual pre-Christmas rush.
Straight | |||||
Domestic N | Imported AN | Imported urea | Liquid UAN (28.8 %N/t) | ||
£410-413 January | Increasing volumes now tracking domestic price | £500 | £1.15/kg | ||
£700+ tight availability | | |
Muriate of Potash (60%K2O) | £600-630 | |
Compound | |||||
N.P.K | Complex | Blended | |||
25.5.5 | £414 Oct | Broadly similar | |||
15.15.20 | £ not available | 14.14.20 £590 | |||
20.10.10 / 27.5.5 | £435 if offered | Broadly similar | |||
17.17.17 | Outpriced None in production | 16.16.16 £560-600 | |||
Aftercuts (NK) (with sulphur) | £419 Aug | ||||
23.4.13.7 | £426 | | |||
Autumn grades (PK) | £560+ when offered. | ||||
Trace elements | Copper, zinc, selenium, |
| Urea | CAN | 25.0.13 | 27.0.6 | 27.6.6 | |
| No market | Highly volatile spot prices | Highly volatile spot prices | Highly volatile spot prices | No longer used Phosphate regulations | |
| Highly volatile spot prices | Highly volatile spot prices | No Market. | |||
†Note in the
*Known as 24.2½.10 blend in the
**Known as 27.2½.5 in ROI
Note All illustrated prices are based upon 24 tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.
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