Farm incomes predicted to peak in 2008, but outlook is gloomy

2008 UK farming income could hit the highest level since 1997, according to farm business consultants Andersons.


Their Outlook 2009 publication predicts Total Income From Farming in 2008 will increase by around one-third on 2007 to £3.5bn, largely on the back of improved grain prices and the fact that the full extent of cost increases (principally fertiliser) would not be seen in this year’s accounts.


But, higher costs and a probable weakening of most markets would have a big impact on next year’s accounts and Andersons suggested 2009 TIFF could fall by up to 15% in real terms compared with 2008, bringing it back below £3bn.


A further 5-10% fall (in real terms) was possible in 2010, compared with 2009, keeping TIFF in the £2-3bn range.


Some comfort could come from the weakening of Sterling, which reduced the pressure from imports and helped keep the value of single payments high, the report said. It also said that UK farmers could be reasonably confident that the level of CAP support they received would not change greatly until 2013.


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