Australia, Ethiopia raise world wheat forecast

By FWi staff

WORLD wheat production is estimated to increase 1 million tonnes on last month to 584m tonnes, according to the International Grain Councils latest report.

“The main changes are a reduction in the figure for Argentina and offsetting increases for Australia and Ethiopia,” says the report.

Adjustments from the 1998 harvest includes reduced cropping in the EC, USA, Iran, Turkey and North Africa.

World estimates – wheat
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00
(forecast as at
(forecast as at
Production 582 610 587 583 584
Trade 95 96 95 100 99
Consumption 580 592 593 591 593
Stocks 112 131 125 116 116

Larger output has been noted by the CIS, South America, China, India and Australia.

World trade has been put 1m tonnes lower at 99m tonnes, resulting from reductions for Russia and South Korea, notes the IGC.

Estimated exports by the EC and USA are both 0.5m tonnes lower while Australia has been raised by an equal amount.

World consumption is expected to increase 2m tonnes to 593m tonnes on the back of higher feed use in Australia and the EC.

The forecast for world stocks is unchanged at 116m tonnes.

“Aggregate carryover in the five major exporters will record a small decline, but would still be the second highest since 1992/93,” notes the report.

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