By FWi staff
DESPITE the expected downward revision of the US soyabean crop, Chicago soya futures prices fell last week.
Soyabean and soya oil prices fell by $3, while soyameal prices were $6 to 7 per tonne lower.
Currency exacerbated the fall, as the US election dilemma weakened the US dollar. Despite this, the Euro remains relatively weak against the US$ and European rapeseed prices gained 2/t on last weeks values.
The uncertainty over a possible ban on meat and bonemeal on the Continent provided some market support, as this may result in an increased usage of oil meal for feed purposes.
UK delivered rapeseed prices rose by 1-2.25, mainly in response to a weaker pound against the US dollar.
Rapeseed for nearby delivery to Liverpool saw the steepest price surge, as short covering lent some support last week.
First new crop (harvest 2001) values are currently quoted at 129/t, more than 10 above the new crop prices quoted last year in November.
PRICES did not receive the support from this months crop report as had been hoped.
As a result of the hot and dry weather conditions in the southern US growing regions, the US Department of Agriculture revised its estimate for the 2000 US soyabean crop lower.
This years output is now projected at 75.6m tonnes, compared with 76.8m last month but still above the record of 74.6m in 1998.
The more than 1m tonne crop cut was within expectation, but the hardly altered ending stocks were not.
The USDA lowered this seasons crush and revised exports lower, as more competition is expected from South America, as Brazil and Argentina are forecast to harvest record crops next spring.
Brazils crop is forecast at 34.5m tonnes, while Argentina is projected to produce 23m tonnes. If realised (plantings in Brazil have just begun) there should be more than enough soyabeans available next year.
A further upward revision of this seasons US soya oil carry-over stocks was also cited as bearish for the market.
- US$1 = 69.93p, 1 = US$1.433;
- 1 = 60.16p, 1 = 1.662
at time of writing
Taken from HGCA weekly MI Oilseeds
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