Dairy farmers face limited recovery – FWi PREVIEW OF

Tuesday, 6 January,

By FW reporters

MILK producers
have been under the cosh during the past 12 months, battered by prices
which fell about 5p/litre in response to pressure from Sterling and

Recent projections suggest the final drop in farm incomes
for 1997 will be about 50% on many dairy units. And some recent reports
suggest large numbers of dairy farmers will be forced to leave the

But for those who survive, the bottom of the trough seems
to have been reached and a limited recovery could be seen during 1998.

Given the built-in lag effect between manufacturer and producer
returns, milk prices could start to firm after the buoyant dairy
commodity market of the past six months.

Butter in particular has
benefited from strong Russian buying. Continental prices have climbed
and Dutch and German values have increased by 15%.

Sterlings strength initially hampered the domestic market, even UK
butter prices have now moved 10% ahead of intervention values as demand
has strengthened.

Bulk product is currently worth about
£2,450/ t, compared with £2,200/ t last May.

Brussels recently imposed a five-point plan stop the market overheating,
including a large cut in export subsidies, a similar reduction in
subsidies on butter for food manufacturing and the sale of all remaining
intervention stocks.

But analysts believe butter prices will soften
only slightly in the months ahead. And the expectation is that the trade
will benefit when Russian and East European buyers return to the market
in the new year.

Skimmed milk powder is also expected to remain
buoyant throughout 1998. Good export business to Mexico and improved
profits for Continental veal producers continue to support the market.

Similarly, cheese manufacturers have reaped the benefit of strong
demand. Many UK dairy companies say mature Cheddar was fundamental to
their substantially improved profits in 1997. Farmhouse Cheddar is
currently worth about £3,500/ t and has been at this level for
over a year, following a gradual firming during 1996.

analysts suggest the bubble could burst some time in 1998, mild Cheddar
prices are expected to reach £2,400/ t by the end of February.

All eyes are now waiting to see the effect of Milk Marques terms
for its January selling round. The companys proposed 0.6ppl price rise
will set the trend for producer prices for much of the year, say

Indicative of what might happen was a recent auction by
United Dairy Farmers in Ulster. This showed a slight increase on prices
achieved at its last sale in September, with 60m litres of milk sold on
12-month contracts averaging 21.56p/litre, compared with 21.24p/litre.
Three-month contracts were up marginally at 22.29p/litre.

But Milk
Marques attempt to get a bit more from the trade could result in buyers
holding off and trying to force prices down again. That said, this may
be of less relevance as Milk Marque is heading towards index-linked
contracts – tying milk prices more strongly to currency.

Sterling will play an even more important part in determining producer
returns in 1998. But which way Sterling will go is anybodys guess.

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