EU rapeseed market firms – HGCA

Last week saw spot UK delivered and MATIF futures rise by 2 and 5, respectively.

This comes despite the USDA planting survey showing a record US soyabean area for this spring, and the Euro and Pound stronger against the US Dollar for most of last week.

Firmer oil prices and limited softseed supply in the EU, and the fact that record American soyabean crops have already being factored into the market were cited as the main reasons for the higher values.

Less rapeseed in France next year

French farmers have planted 10% less rapeseed for the coming harvest (1.1m ha).

This and expected lower closing stocks should reduce the 2001/02 French rapeseed availability.

Less crops on set-aside land in Germany

The German Intervention Board received applications for 316,772 ha of industrial crops on set-aside land by mid-March, compared with 340,650 ha
last year.

Wet weather conditions during March have reduced opportunities for spring plantings.

International market prices and commentary

US prospective plantings

In its annual prospective plantings report the USDA estimated that farmers intend to sow a record of 31.02m ha of soyabeans this spring, while reducing the area devoted to maize and overall wheat (the lowest since 1973).

The USDA also estimates an increase in the GM soyabean area. Last year 54% of US soyabeans were GM varieties, this years share is expected to rise to 63%.

Friday also saw the publication of the quarterly stock report. US quarterly soyabean stocks were put at 1,422m bushels, which was below trade estimates but up 1% on last year.

The effect on prices?

Although the potential record plantings were bearish to markets, price falls in reaction to the report were limited.

Soyabean and meal prices, however, were sharply lower on Friday in confusion over foot-and-mouth tests on US hogs, while soya oil prices improved by $5-7/t.

This was due to oil-meal spreading activity and the firmness in palm oil futures.

Palm oil gained up to $13/t, thus offsetting last weeks sharp losses. Higher than expected exports and the potential usage of palm oil as fuel in power plants
continues to provide price support.