Farmers gloomy about post-Brexit prospects, but still want ‘out’
© Tim Scrivener/ING Image British farmers may be gloomier about their economic prospects six months after the Brexit decision, but few would change the way they voted.
That is one of the key findings from a survey by Farmers Weekly of more than a thousand farmers.
The survey, timed to coincide with the six-month anniversary of the EU referendum, was conducted online from 5-11 December and attracted more than 2,000 responses, of which just over 1,400 were active farmers.
See also: Farmers split over Brexit, but trade fears intensify
Of those farmers, it emerged that 54% opted to leave the EU when they cast their votes on 23 June, while 44% voted to remain.
This was closer than Farmers Weekly had predicted.
A previous poll we ran in April this year – two months before the referendum – had put the figures at 58% leave, 31% remain and 11% undecided.
It seems clear that many of those who were “floating voters” eventually decided to remain, and there was probably some last minute movement away from the leave camp too, though overall there was a clear majority of farmers who voted to quit the EU.
For better, for worse
Drilling down a bit deeper into the survey, it seems farmers are still pretty gloomy about their economic prospects post-Brexit.
Overall, just 28% felt they would be better off, compared with 43% who felt they would be worse off, while 21% thought it would be about the same.
When we asked the same question last April, we found 37% felt they would be better off and only 32% thought they would be worse off.
It is notable that even among those who voted to leave, there has been a decline in optimism.
Last April, of those who said they planned to vote leave, 63% believed their businesses would be better off outside the EU. Our latest survey now puts that figure at just 49%.
This tendency to become more pessimistic is perhaps surprising, given that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote has been a collapse in the value of sterling, which has had beneficial effects on farmgate prices and farm income prospects.
Despite this, it is very apparent from the latest survey that people are still happy with their decisions. When asked if they would change the way they voted if they were given a second chance, very few said yes, they would.
Of those who voted leave, only 3% said they would now vote remain, while of those who voted remain, just 4% would now vote leave – a net change of 1%.
Given how close the referendum was nationally, such swings could have actually been very significant. But overall, people seem to be sticking staunchly to the decisions they took on 23 June, even if this means they will take an economic hit.
Diverging views on Brexit
Former Defra farm minister, and keen “remain” campaigner, Jim Paice, said farmers were right to feel pessimistic about their prospects, despite the positive impact the collapse in sterling has had on their incomes since June.
“I think this currency boom is a short-term phenomenon and, if the UK economy strengthens, the pound would then strengthen.”
Mr Paice added the pessimism farmers felt related to a growing realisation that securing good trade deals was going to be difficult. “Farming will not feature very highly in negotiations.” The future of the Basic Payment Scheme was also in doubt.
But he was not surprised most farmers would not change the way they voted if the referendum was held again, given that their voting decisions were influenced by things beyond the farmgate, especially migration.
Farmers for Britain’s spokesman during the referendum, Michael Seals, said it was good to see the farming majority for “out” remained solid.
“There is a huge opportunity for us when this period of uncertainty ends and, as with any negotiation, there is everything to play for,” he said.
“The development of a good negotiating position for British farming in the forthcoming talks seems to be what Defra and other departments are busy progressing.”
He remained confident a good trade deal could be struck. “The balance of trade in food lies very much in favour of our continental colleagues – our market is more important to them, than their market is to us. That is a good position to start a negotiation from.”