Fertiliser prices in Limbo ahead of new season
By Roger Chesher
WHILE current pricing and market activity have not changed this week, the trade now looks to Terra, the nitrogen leader, to set the pattern for the new season.
The first of June traditionally marked the start of the new season, when a whole raft of prices for the future year would be revealed.
These included a significant rebate to tempt the early buyer, and featured cash, credit and even pre-payment terms.
The fertiliser world would go mad in June with the overwhelming bulk of the years business tied up in that month.
Things are very different now, as the market has moved towards just-in-time purchase and all but cash terms have disappeared.
With no Cereals Demonstration or Royal Show this year, the natural environment in which pricing would evolve has gone, and there are no indications when the new season prices will be published.
One would expect to hear the first indications of the July starting prices around mid June.
Importers are clearing up existing stocks before the storm and not committing to new tonnages yet, waiting to get an indication of new seasons pricing.
The majors will wish to stimulate some early movement at a price, so July pricing must be attractive if farmers are to stump up cash.
One thing is certain, this new season will not be the same as the last: there are higher fertiliser stock levels than last year, the market potential, with set aside, lower plantings and foot-and-mouth, must be down by some 15-20%, and the world ammonium nitrate price is creeping down.
It will be difficult for the majors to maintain a regular month on month price increase in an environment which is becoming more of a buyers market.
New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5% | Anticipated new-season (July) domestic nitrogen | Imported urea (if available) | Imported AN |
Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16 | Blended 25.5.5 | Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t |
May 125 | July 110 | Granular 144 Prilled 132 | 118-120 ex-stock |
121 | 118 | 140 |
NPK | May, pay cash | July, imported N |
Complex 25.5.5 | 121 | 95-100 |
15.15.20 | 144 | |
20.10.10/29.5.5 | 124 | |
17.17.17 | 149 |
After-cut NK cash | 0.24.24 | TSP (47% P2O5) bagged | Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged |
119-121 | 114-116 | 135-140 | 115-118 |
IRELAND CAN 24.6.12 0.16.36 Complex compounds
Forecast spring prices
Urea
27.6.6
Northern Ireland
Market over
122
148
No market
148
CAN | 24.21/2.10 | Urea, imported | 27.21/2.5 | |
Republic of Ireland* | 145-155 | 185 | 190 | 187 |
*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Prices in the Republic are IR
Note All illustrated prices are based on 20-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.
Source: Bridgewater Partnership
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