IGC raises wheat estimate


By Olivia Cooper

THE International Grains Council has increased its forecast of world wheat production by 4 million tonnes to 571m tonnes.

This is due to improved prospects in the EU, Russia and Ukraine.

Total stocks were increased by 1m tonnes, but the stocks carried by the five major exporters are still the lowest since 1996/1997.




World wheat estimate
(Million tonnes)
98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02 as at 29 August, 2001

Forecast as at 26 September, 2001

Production

587

584

582

567

571

Trade

99

109

101

104

104

Consumption

589

591

594

597

599

Stocks

165

158

146

116

118

 

Recent sales of US soft red winter wheat to Egypt have provided some support to prices, which had plummeted after equity values fell following the terrorist attacks in the USA.

World coarse grain stocks were revised up by 2m tonnes, a minor adjustment after last months drop of 13m tonnes as a result of smaller crops in the USA and China.

Coarse grain stocks are predicted to be the lowest for five years, but US maize markets have been pressured by a rapidly advancing harvest and improved crop expectations.

Meanwhile, Brussels has agreed to decide next week whether or not to lift the Euro10 import duty on Mediterranean, Black Sea and Baltic cereals.

London wheat futures eased slightly, and this is likely to be the main influence on the markets over the next week.

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