Northern harvest boosts world wheat forecast

By FWi staff

FORECASTS for production of world wheat have risen 5 million tonnes over the past week following the completion of northern hemisphere harvests at 582m tonnes.

The increase is the result of better figures for Kazakhstan, Argentina, China and Australia.

But this total out-turn would still be 3m tonnes below that of 1998, with smaller crops in the EC, the US, Near East Asia and North Africa, noted the International Grains council.

“But increases in the CIS, Canada, South America, China, India and Australia.”

World trade remains unchanged at 99m tonnes. Imports by Iran are higher, but forecasts for China and North Africa have been reduced.

World estimates – wheat
  96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 (forecast as at 27/10/99) 99-00 (forecast as at 24/11/99)
Production 582 610 585 577 582
Trade 95 96 95 99 99
Consumption 582 5919 593 585 589
Stocks 110 131 124 120 116

Shipment predictions have been lowered for the EC and the US and raised for Argentina.

World consumption has increased 4m tonnes to 589m tonnes. However, this is still lower than the revised figure for 1998.

The changes reflect adjustments to recent data series for the EC, especially food use, said the IGC.

“These new figures are also the main reason for a reduction of 4m tonnes to 116m tonnes for world stocks.”

Aggregate carryover stocks in the five major exporting countries are forecast 2m tonnes lower than last year at 50m tonnes.

Despite this reduction stocks will still be the second highest on record since 1992/93.

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