Only half-way house to 2000+ CAPshake-up
Only half-way house to 2000+ CAPshake-up
Agenda 2000 proposals
came under the spotlight at
a recent conference as
experts sought to predict
their impact on different
agricultural sectors.
Robert Harris and
Philip Clarke report
AGENDA 2000 is little more than a stepping stone, with further, more radical changes to the CAP likely early next century.
Speaking at the recent Agra-Europe Outlook conference in London, Euro-consultant Brian Gardner said the reforms were needed just to meet export restraints of the last GATT round.
Wheat production was now above 1991 levels, despite set-aside. While world market conditions had prevented a collision with the Uruguay Round ceiling for subsidised exports, current trends pointed to that limit being breached in 2001.
Agenda 2000 was a step in the right direction, he said. A cereal intervention price of £69/t might eliminate export subsidies for wheat (though not for barley and coarse grains). And if oilseeds received the same area aid as cereals then the Blair House maximum guaranteed area would go.
"But I cannot see Agenda 2000 solving the problems of the livestock and dairy sectors, which are on a collision course with their Uruguay round limits by the end of the decade," said Mr Gardner.
That view was endorsed by former NFU president Sir David Naish, who said the European Commissions projections for supply and demand in the beef sector were too optimistic.
Brussels said there would be market balance in 1999, with intervention stocks almost eliminated by 2000. But the NFU and the Meat and Livestock Commission believed stocks would total 1m tonnes in 2000 and would increase rapidly thereafter as output picked up (see graph).
Access to world markets would be essential to help clear that. The NFU-favoured approach of cutting prices and increasing direct income aids would help.
But Agenda 2000 did not go far enough, said Mr Gardner. With EU enlargement probable in 2006, and the next WTO trade talks likely to be implemented in 2008, CAP reform Mark III would be needed to help the EU cope with bigger surpluses and more imports.
Prices would have to fall further, more cuts in export subsidies would be needed and any direct income aids would have to be fully decoupled from production.