Prices firm on lower US soya forecasts

By FWi staff

CHICAGO soya futures markets were firmer last week, following encouraging export data and production forecasts by private analysts, which were below expectation.

The positive effects on the European oilseed markets were, however, limited by a firmer Euro versus the US Dollar, following the intervention of the European Central Bank.

MATIF rapeseed futures closed the week Euro2/t higher for nearby months, while UK delivered values improved by 1.75/t.

  • No area aid penalty

    The Commission stated that the EU Maximum Guaranteed area has not been exceeded this year, so no penalty will be incurred.

    However, due to base area overshoots, English and Scottish growers will see a downward adjustments
    of their payments.

    In addition to the area aid growers will receive agrimoney compensation this year.

    The UK government announced a 34m package to the arable sector. An additional 500,000 will be available for flax producers.


  • US soya could fall short

    A week before the US Department of Agriculture publishes the November crop report on Thursday (09 November), private analysts surprised the trade with crop forecasts below anticipation.

    The US soyabean crop was estimated at 75m and 75.2m tonnes, compared with 76.8m by the USDA last month, but still above the record of 74.6m tonnes harvested in 1998.

    If the lower crop estimates prove to be accurate, less soyabeans will be available than expected.

    The supply situation could therefore be tighter during the next three months, before South American soyabeans come on to the markets. This could provide some price support.

    • US$1 = 69.16p, 1 = US$1.446;
    • Euro1 = 59.95p, 1 = Euro1.668
      at time of writing

    Taken from HGCA weekly MI Oilseeds
    To contact the HGCA phone 020 7520 3972

    Click here to visit the Home-Grown Cereals Authority

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