Wheat carry-over threat to next years prices

By FWi staff

WITH less than a third of the season left to market old-crop, there is little to suggest that values will recover significantly.

Attention is now being turned to the potential carry-over stocks which, in the absence of improved export potential, could have implications on next years prices, notes the Home-Grown Cereals Authority.

But the question is not if there will be a carryout, but how much, said a spokesman from Glencore Grain.

The latest supply and demand figures from MAFF show that both wheat and barley imports are up, and exports down.

Despite very quiet export markets, a sale of French wheat was completed with Algeria, comprising of at least five 25,000t vessels, noted Cargills Ian Wallis.

“The news received a particularly positive response as this is the first Algerian purchase of French wheat in almost two years,” he added.

But despite the lack of exports, the UK wheat market has gained some support over the last week on the back of a lack of farmer selling, consumer demand and merchants shorts.

Group two wheat in particular continues to be sought after as millers have found that it can blend into higher grade imported north American, said a spokesman from Banks Agriculture.

“For this reason, millers have been largely ignoring UK group one wheat and the premium on this quality wheat has therefore shrunk to only about £3/t over group two,” he added.

Milling wheat values have climbed over £1 in the week to about £84.25/t with feed wheat values remaining stable ranging between £73/t and £76/t.

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