World coarse grain estimate down 6m tonnes

By FWi staff

ESTIMATED world coarse grain production for 1998 is down 6 million tonnes to 897m tonnes.

This lower prediction reflects further declines in figures for Russia and the Ukraine, as well as smaller forecasts for India and South Africa, noted the International Grains Council.

However, Chinese maize is expected to do somewhat better, with a projected 122m tonnes, up 2m on 1997.

World trade is anticipated to be 1m tonnes down on 1997 at 89m tonnes. This reduction reflects minor revisions for maize imports for several countries, mainly Korea and Japan, said the IGC. So far this season exports are down in the USA, while China has increased exports by 1m to 41m tonnes.

Forecasts for world consumption have also fallen, down 1m at 137m tonnes. Usage in the USA could be as high as 216m tonnes, and world stocks are put at 137m tonnes, noted the IGC.

“Despite the expansion in feed use, US stocks are still forecast to rise over 10m to almost 49m tonnes.”

It has been reported that areas of the corn belt are suffering from severe storage problems due to the exceptional harvest that they are experiencing.

World estimates – coarse grain
  95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 (forecast as at 23/09/98) 98-99 (forecast as at 28/10/98)
Production 801 916 904 903 897
Trade 92 93 88 90 89
Consumption 831 886 891 896 895
Stocks 92 122 136 143 137

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