Climate challenge: Modelling the cost on a dairy farm

For Farmers Weekly’s second part of “Rise to the Climate Challenge” series, Jez Fredenburgh examines the financial impacts of different weather scenarios on a dairy enterprise.

“The grass always looks greener on the other side,” takes on real meaning if you are a dairy farmer. Each spring is keenly spent hoping for a good dose of wet and warm weather to get the grass growing and the yields up.

Equally, too much rain at the wrong time of year can be disastrous for pastures and forage, as can weather that is too dry and hot. Costs can quickly escalate for bought in feed, cooling and the like, while at the same time yields can suffer.

Good business planning to mitigate against weather-related risk is therefore key. This has its challenges, but integrating weather into every aspect of forecasting – and planning five to ten years ahead – can help make businesses more resilient to related shocks and stresses.

“Many of the effects are difficult to avoid,” says The Andersons Centre. “But if you are aware of the risks and subsequent impacts then you can account for the changes in any sensitivity analysis you apply to your budgets/business plans.

“Like any business risk, understanding the effect and its likelihood is important when considering future farm systems.

“The preferred system depends on many factors specific to the farm, its resources and milk contract, but taking a fresh look at it can often make it more resilient to changes rather than continuing with what has always been done.”

A team from Adas, The Andersons Centre and The Farming Advice Service, has collaborated to model the impact of different weather scenarios on a given dairy farm.

Left to simply react to the weather, rather than be prepared for it, the model farm clearly suffers great swings in costs and income, amounting to a difference in total business surplus of £40,000 between a good and bad year of weather.

And that is not taking into account changes in feed and electricity costs or milk prices.

The most challenging weather scenario modeled was a hot spring and summer with low rainfall. This resulted in a 4% reduction in milk yields, while costs for feed (+ 29%), artificial insemination (+12%) and water (+12%) took the business surplus to -£30,866.

Being so exposed is cleatrly unssustable. Taking a more proactive rather than reactive approach can help make a business less susceptible to the whims of the weather – and other unrelated costs.

“If you’ve got a business that is more resilient to price, weather and whatever else, they you’re going to be here for the long run,” advises The Andersons Centre.

*The financial impact below each weather scenario is based on a dairy farm with 150 cows averaging 7,500 litres on 100ha of part-rented grassland. The farm has year-round calving and is on a liquid contract. It has one owner and one further farm worker. 

Scenario 1: High summer temperatures, normal rainfall and sunshine levels

Scenario 2: High spring and summer temperatures, with low rainfall for a sustained period

Higher than average rainfall, with 25% more throughout the year