By Roger Chesher

THERE is still no news from Brussels about ratification of the anti-dumping levy on Russian ammonium nitrate.

This is now anticipated in the second week of January and the indecision is causing problems, particularly among importers.

The European Fertiliser Manufacturers Association (EFMA) is still confident that ratification will take place as originally expected.

But irrespective of this, it is time to take a practical view over the substantial market still remaining for nitrogen.

Next week the industry closes down for Christmas and New Year.

There will be no opportunity for serious fertiliser trading until early January, and then its only three weeks or so until the top dressing season.

Even if we were to speculate that the anti dumping levy were not ratified, it is too late to think that prices could go down, or even stay static.

Prices are hardening irrespective of levies, as gas prices are increasing, and imports already here are attracting storage charges.

Prices will rise by at least 2/t a month from January onwards.

On top of all that, a logistical nightmare looms.

There is no real shortage of product, but there will be difficulty in getting the right product to the right place at the right time.

CURRENT PRICES

New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5% January domestic nitrogen Imported urea Imported AN Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16 Blended 25.5.5 Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t
December 110-113 115 Prilled 124 102-103 113 107 120
NPK December NS products
Complex 25.5.5 113 117
15.15.20 134
20.10.10/29.5.5 120
17.17.17 139-140
After-cut NK cash 0.24.24 TSP (47% P2O5) bagged Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged
No market 112-114; market virtually over 125 122

 

IRELAND
Forecast prices

  Urea

CAN

24.6.12

0.16.36

Complex compounds
27.6.6
Northern Ireland No market 98 122-125 130 124
 

CAN

24.21/2.10

Urea, imported

27.21/2.5
Republic of Ireland* 130-140 No market No market 150

*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.

*Prices in the Republic are IR

  • IR1=UK78.68; US$1=UK68.97 on 19 December

     

    Note All illustrated prices are based on 24-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

    Source: Bridgewater Partnership