Russian ammonium nitrate levy in three weeks?


By Roger Chesher


THERE is still no news from Brussels about ratification of the anti-dumping levy on Russian ammonium nitrate.


This is now anticipated in the second week of January and the indecision is causing problems, particularly among importers.


The European Fertiliser Manufacturers Association (EFMA) is still confident that ratification will take place as originally expected.


But irrespective of this, it is time to take a practical view over the substantial market still remaining for nitrogen.


Next week the industry closes down for Christmas and New Year.


There will be no opportunity for serious fertiliser trading until early January, and then its only three weeks or so until the top dressing season.


Even if we were to speculate that the anti dumping levy were not ratified, it is too late to think that prices could go down, or even stay static.


Prices are hardening irrespective of levies, as gas prices are increasing, and imports already here are attracting storage charges.


Prices will rise by at least 2/t a month from January onwards.


On top of all that, a logistical nightmare looms.


There is no real shortage of product, but there will be difficulty in getting the right product to the right place at the right time.

CURRENT PRICES

















New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5%

January domestic nitrogen

Imported urea

Imported AN

Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16

Blended 25.5.5
Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t


December 110-113


115


Prilled 124

102-103

113

107

120



















NPK

December

NS products

Complex 25.5.5

113

117

15.15.20

134


20.10.10/29.5.5

120


17.17.17

139-140













After-cut NK cash

0.24.24

TSP (47% P2O5) bagged

Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged

No market

112-114; market virtually over

125

122

 

IRELAND

Forecast prices
















 
Urea

CAN


24.6.12


0.16.36


Complex compounds
27.6.6


Northern Ireland

No market

98

122-125

130

124















 

CAN


24.21/2.10


Urea, imported


27.21/2.5


Republic of Ireland*

130-140

No market

No market

150

*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.

*Prices in the Republic are IR

  • IR1=UK78.68; US$1=UK68.97 on 19 December

     

    Note All illustrated prices are based on 24-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

    Source: Bridgewater Partnership

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