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Russian ammonium nitrate levy in three weeks?

- 20 December 2001
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By Roger Chesher


THERE is still no news from Brussels about ratification of the anti-dumping levy on Russian ammonium nitrate.


This is now anticipated in the second week of January and the indecision is causing problems, particularly among importers.


The European Fertiliser Manufacturers Association (EFMA) is still confident that ratification will take place as originally expected.


But irrespective of this, it is time to take a practical view over the substantial market still remaining for nitrogen.


Next week the industry closes down for Christmas and New Year.


There will be no opportunity for serious fertiliser trading until early January, and then its only three weeks or so until the top dressing season.


Even if we were to speculate that the anti dumping levy were not ratified, it is too late to think that prices could go down, or even stay static.


Prices are hardening irrespective of levies, as gas prices are increasing, and imports already here are attracting storage charges.


Prices will rise by at least 2/t a month from January onwards.


On top of all that, a logistical nightmare looms.


There is no real shortage of product, but there will be difficulty in getting the right product to the right place at the right time.

CURRENT PRICES

















New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5%
January domestic nitrogen
Imported urea
Imported AN
Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16
Blended 25.5.5		 Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t


December 110-113

115

Prilled 124
102-103
113
107
120



















NPK
December
NS products

Complex 25.5.5
113
117

15.15.20
134

20.10.10/29.5.5
120

17.17.17
139-140













After-cut NK cash
0.24.24
TSP (47% P2O5) bagged
Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged

No market
112-114; market virtually over
125
122

 

IRELAND

Forecast prices
















 
Urea

CAN


24.6.12


0.16.36


Complex compounds
27.6.6


Northern Ireland
No market
98
122-125
130
124















 

CAN

24.21/2.10

Urea, imported

27.21/2.5

Republic of Ireland*
130-140
No market
No market
150

*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.

*Prices in the Republic are IR

  • IR1=UK78.68; US$1=UK68.97 on 19 December

     

    Note All illustrated prices are based on 24-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

    Source: Bridgewater Partnership

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