Recently in barley Category

Global beer consumption topped 182.69m kilolitres in 2010, a rise of 2.4% on the previous year, according to Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings.

It sounds even more impressive when put into English - it works out at 329bn pints - or 47 pints a year for every man, woman and child on the planet. Little wonder then that barley supplies are so tight, so to speak.

It’s good news for UK producers. Between July and November, DEFRA reckons brewers, distillers and maltsters used almost 731,000t of barley, 6% higher than the previous year. And malting barley prices remain firm, up around €15/t on September levels and about €73/t above feed barley, reflecting concern over EU supplies this season.

Meanwhile, the latest USDA figures show world barley trade is set to rise by 0.2m tonnes to 16.32m tonnes in 2011/12.

Demand for big bale straw remains strong, but there appears to be less buying interest for hay, according to reports from two recent sales.

In the Cotswolds 3221 big wheat straw bales averaged £17.95 each, to a top of £24 at Tayler & Fletcher’s sale. Big bale barley straw averaged £24.26, to a top of £33, while meadow hay averaged £33 a bale.

Prices were down slightly on the firm’s November sale and Adrian Cannon said that while over 80% of straw was sold, less than half the hay on offer was cleared. “There seems to be plenty of hay around and people are thinking they’re not going to need as much as expected,” he said.

There was a similar picture at Alexanders of Huntingdon, where all the big bale straw was sold, at an average price of £18.66 each for 1300 wheat bales and £25.90 for 757 barley straw bales. Big bale meadow hay averaged £36 a bale.

The UK wheat crop totaled 15.3m tonnes this harvest, 3% more than last year, according to final results from Defra’s national survey published today (22 December).

Wheat production was up due to a 2% increase in the sown area to 2m ha, combined with a 1% increase in the average yield, to 7.7t/ha. The highest yields (8.1t/ha) were in the North East, Yorkshire and the Humber, while the lowest yield was in the North West and Merseyside at 6.5t/ha.

Barly production was up 5% in 2011, to 5.5m tonnes, as a 13% increase in the spring barley area more than compensated for a decline in winter barley and a small reduction in overall yields.

It was a record year for oilseed rape though, as yields were up by 13% to an average of 3.9t/ha and area was 10% higher than 2010. This led to total UK production of 2.8m tonnes, some 24% more than last year.

Rising costs are set to push the average cost of production for feed wheat up to £130/t for 2012, according to the latest forecast from Agro Business Consultants.

The November edition of its costing book shows that costs including rent and finance charge are up about £6/t on 2011, although with a predicted selling price of £140/t, feed wheat is still profitable without support.

Oilseed rape was also likely to give a decent margin. Costs were set to rise by £13/t to £320/t, but this was still £25 below the budgeted selling price.

But margins for feed winter barley were less promising as costs were predicted to total £153/t, over £20/t above the expected selling price.

There was also inflationary pressure in the livestock sector. For example, production costs for a year-round calving dairy herd were put at 25.6p/litre, up by just over a penny from the current year.

Go to www.abcbooks.co.uk to find out more about the book and order a copy.

A new contract for selected growers of Null-Lox spring malting barley has been launched by Gleadell.

The 2012 contract is said to be “non-defaultable” on both quality and yield, meaning that if growers fail to deliver the designated tonnage or miss the 1.92% nitrogen spec required, they will not be penalised and are free to walk away.

Price will be based on the weekly European fob reference price at the time of sale. This is currently €220-225/t, which equates to £180-185/t ex-farm for a grower near the south coast.

Gleadell’s Stuart Shand said the non-defaultable contract could only be offered because the variety had been backed by brewers and maltsters. The barley will be malted in East Anglia and Yorkshire, as well as being exported to the continent as part of the firm’s export programme.

Scotch whisky exports were up 22% in the first six months of this year, worth £1.8bn and accounting for about 25% of all UK food and drink exports. The USA remains the main customer, with France the second most valuable market.

However the biggest percentage increases in business came in some of the emerging markets such as Asia and South America.

In 2010 Scotch Whisky Association members, representing the vast majority of the industry, used 534,000t of malted barley and 561,000t of other cereals (largely wheat). The industry procures 90% of its malted barley from Scottish sources.

The amount of wheat, barley and oilseed rape in the ground for this harvest were all above last year, according to provisional results from Defra’s June 2011 Census.

It put the English wheat area at 1.82m ha, 1.6% above 2010, with the largest increase in the Yorkshire and Humber region. The total barley area was up 4% to 607,000ha, driven by a 17% increase in spring cropping, which more than offset a 7% fall in winter barley.

The oilseed rape area was 8% higher than 2010 at 650,000ha, the largest area ever. Both spring and winter-sown areas increased, by 37% and 8% respectively.

Uncropped land was put at 136,000ha, 9% below last year.

FW has been hearing of some impressive rapeseed yields this season, despite the Spring's drought. One farming contributor in the office this week reports nearly 5t/ha in southern Oxfordshire (although he was less keen to talk about his barley).  But what remains to be seen is how much we have as a nation to export, and how this gross tonnage will influence prices. There are several ways the industry collects this information and the NFU is urging members in England and Wales to complete its harvest survey.
Chief arable adviser Guy Gagen said: “Historically, the harvest survey has proven to be a reliable estimate and provides the most accurate early forecast for UK crop yields and production levels. To ensure it is comprehensive it is vital that as many farmers as possible take part. The data gathered supports the results of DEFRA’s own survey later in the autumn and fills an important gap between harvest and when official estimates are available."

 

In a market that moves on every bit of news, the discovery of a locust problem in southern Russia might have been expected to push prices up by more than the £1.25/t rise seen by mid day Wednesday on London’s feed wheat futures market.

France and Kiev based analyst Agritel reports that more than 77,000ha (190,000 acres) have been treated with pesticides but that the Department of Agriculture considered that this measure was not sufficient.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian 2011/12 grain export forecast has been cut to between 15m and 18m tonnes, from the previous figure of 19m to 20m tonnes. The latest Russian crop forecast from Russian Grain Union sees a 2011/12 grain crop of 80 to 93m tonnes, leaving the door open for those exports but still all weather dependent.

“With the major five exporters (US, Argentina, Australia, Canada and EU) holding only 44m tonnes of wheat, or 24% of the total stock, the world needs all of the total export potential from the Former Soviet Union (26.3m tonnes), and any signs of export restrictions from this region will ignite further buying speculation,” says Gleadell managing director David Sheppard in his Cereals event market report.

 

The HGCA has published an interesting prediction of arable incomes this season, showing the impact of higher grain prices, but also the potential losses if there is a big drop in yields.

Its hypothetical 100ha model estimates income for the 2011/12 season will be £50,738/100ha, well up from the £39,088/100ha in 2010/11. The prediction is based on an indicative ex-farm feed wheat price of £166/t, barley at £156/t and oilseed rape at £380/t. Average wheat yield is put at 8.07t/ha.

But the HGCA acknowledges the recent dry weather is causing concern over crop condition and suggests a 20% yield reduction would knock almost £23k off the income estimate. If ever there was a year for adopting risk management when marketing grain, this is surely it.